Part 9 - Highway to hell or paradise by the dashboard light?

Autonomous vehicles, they are coming, no question, no way to get the genie back in the bottle, autonomous vehicles will be a part of everyday life. Without doubt they will have a huge impact on life, transport, and anything else you can think of but there is also a very great potential for a very dark side.

Anyone who has had an even passing use of a computer at home or at work knows about the minefield individuals and companies need to go through every single day to keep them secure, virus free and usable. 

When a hacker gets into your computer it can have a devastating effect on your life ranging from stealing your bank accounts right up to pretty much stealing your entire life with identity theft.

Now consider that every function of an autonomous car is controlled by one or more computers. It's not such a big step to imagine what would happen if a freeway full of autonomous cars travelling at high speed suddenly got hacked? Identity theft would look pretty good in comparison to the widespread death and destruction that could be the result of a state sponsored attack on the road system of another country.

I don't for a minute doubt that this will be addressed before a widespread release of this technology happens, but as history shows us, we don't know what we don't know.

For example if you own a Jeep Cherokee there is a chance that someone could have taken control of your car and crashed it for you. 

Wired magazine has very good story here about two researchers who did just that. Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek have found (and exploited) a weakness in Chryslers' systems that allowed remote access once they have the IP address of a computer installed in these cars called Uconnect.

Once they had that they could download code that effectively gave them control of everything electronic within the vehicle..... including the steering and brakes.

To be fair this never made it into the wild as Chrysler issued a fix extremely quickly.

But as I said, we don't know what we don't know so the possibility of someone with evil intent finding a flaw like this and exploiting it for nefarious purposes is a very real possibility.  

To me, this is another reason that governments need to be proactive in this technology, not by controlling it but setting the laws and standards of testing to ensure that issues such as this can be mitigated.

Not that industry would deliberately falsify or compromise safety standards or emission controls would they? OK Volkswagen springs to mind with diesels, oh, and with cars stopping for no reason, and yea, Toyota cars failing to stop and... you get the idea. Admittedly the Volkswagen and Toyota problems with stopping and failing to stop respectively appear more to do with software testing than malevolence but just goes to prove the point that we don't know what we don't know. The manufacturers thought that the software that controlled these functions worked just fine but they didn't know that certain circumstances could create problems.

I don't claim to know the inner workings of car design but it needs oversight in the form of regulation to ensure that testing is rigorous and effective and as the car assumes more and more of the driving functionality it becomes more and more critical that the software is up to the job.

Another software control that needs to be built in and I know that some cars already have this, is multiple computers that cross check each other, so if there is a failure, the cars knows it's ill and can safely move off the road while refusing to go back into autonomous mode. 

I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that!

All of the onus isn't on the car manufacturers either. As this technology becomes more pervasive the road system will need to become smart as well. No longer will it be enough to have speed limit signs and road work signs. Some cars, such as Mercedes can read these but it would be far better to make the road system more intelligent and proactive. That way the car can know road conditions and delays before it gets there and if there is a more efficient route, change its course. Road works with temporary lane markings and speed limits can be transmitted electronically (and enforced).

The software that controls that will need to be vigorously tested and secured as well, as there are public safety implications to be protected.

I never thought that I would be an advocate for government to be involved in private industry decisions and I still don't but I do believe there needs to be a government framework around all of this to ensure that public safety comes before the corporate need. 

Corporations are there to make profits for their shareholders and sometimes the corporation comes before the welfare of the people. 

For any large organisation, be it government or corporate, there has to be a system of checks and balances for the greater good.  

I keep saying, and will keep saying that government needs to be involve now, before the car makers set the standards and build a power base that can't be reversed.

The time to do this is now, before it becomes mainstream, by then it may be too late and any changes or legislation once there is a large user base will only serve to delay the implementation of this technology, not assist in its uptake.

Now for something completely different.

New technology of the week, only from the Dutch.

Part 8 - The flesh is willing but the spirit is weak

Something a little different for today, or rather several things.

By now I think that most people, at least those that have the capacity to think about it, are well aware that autonomous vehicles are a when, not an if.

To a large extent the technology is but pretty much there now for a lot of manufacturers and most plan to have this on the road in full production vehicles by 2020.
China may have it in use earlier as they don't have to worry about pesky little things like lawsuits and public opinion.

So lets get away from the technology aspect and focus on the factors that will stop places like my home in Western Australia from being early adopters.

There are a number of factors that need to be urgently addressed before we get rolling :-)

• Public acceptance and education
• Road laws to cover the vehicle liability in the event of an accident
• Laws to cover the owner and or manufacturer liability
• Laws to cover where autonomous vehicles can be used 
• Laws to cover the software protection and data sharing of the vehicle and infrastructure devices

There are a lot of other considerations as well but what immediately jumps out, to me at least, is the fact that (pardon the pun) there's no one driving this.

The Western Australian government has already stated that this technology is inevitable but apart from a single low speed automated bus being tested by the RAC there is no government push that I am aware of to get ahead of the curve.

When you think about the huge change that this technology will bring to society, and the massive savings that governments stand to make because of it, then you start to wonder why this isn't being looked at from the highest levels.

What we need is a coordinated approach between federal and state governments to come up with a national standard with a common time frame to develop laws that can be applied across the country.

Until we get that the manufacturers are in the driving seat, literally, and that might not be a good thing. As with any technology, once it's out there it doesn't go away, so if it becomes available, people will use it legally  or not.

Now for something completely different......

It has long been said that life imitates art. In the case of technology this is so very true.

Probably due to the fact that science fiction tends to act like brainstorming. In a brainstorming session you say whatever you think no matter how stupid. What happens is that someone thinks about that idea and it sparks other ideas from a path that they normally wouldn't have gone down. It produces creativity.

At the time that Star Trek came out and Kirk first uttered the immortal words "Beam us up Mr Scott" into a miniature hand held device that could communicate to a spaceship, I was hooked. My mother however scoffed and said "they'll never make a radio that small".

Remember the original Motorola flip phone?

But they did, and far far more.

Can you remember life without mobile phones or the internet? Now you have the internet on your phone and instant communication and video from anywhere whenever you want it (Netfix not withstanding).

Automated vehicles have been portrayed in film since the earliest days and have recently become much more familiar as the tech of today is starting to look very much like the tech portrayed as the future.

2015 didn't bring us the flying car or holographic projecting film ads, but it did bring us a basic, but limited hoverboard.

As Lao Tzu said, "A Journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step".

We don't have a fully functional, general purpose hoverboard but we do have a starting point and that's the biggest step, the rest is mere detail.

Just to digress once again, it is an exciting time to be alive. 

Truly exciting.

I grew up in a time where the only entertainment we had at home was a radio, books and board games. A very occassional movie if we were really lucky.

Later we got television and that opened up the world. When the first satellites went up and the costs started to come down we started to get video news from around the world within 24 hours of it happening.

When I watched, live, a space launch at the beginning of the space race from what was then called Cape Canaveral, I was so awed with the technology that allowed me to watch that in real time that I decided there and then that technology and communications was to be my career of choice.

When I watched the first man walk on the moon live (no it wasn't faked) I was a trainee Technician and the whole class and teaching staff watched it on black and white TV in Perth Western Australia and thought that this was the pinnacle of science.

From there is has been more and more technology in a faster world.

Now we are at a turning point where tech is reaching maturity and devices are beginning to blend together (think phone, TV, book reader, newspaper and internet on one device). The computing power is now reaching the stage where anything is possible, Hell I have a computer controlled 3D router in my shed.

We now have 3D printers in the home, instant streaming TV and music, news instantly from anywhere in the world, cars that drive themselves and robots making appearances as receptionists and automated factories.

Medical science is changing our lives on a daily basis and life expectancy is now stretching out.

When I was a kid people at the age I am now were old, today we're just getting started, I have no intention of departing this mortal coil anytime soon.

There's just too much to see, do and be a part of.

No I'm not going anywhere just yet, I want my hoverboard and flying car.

Part 7 - Privacy, the cost of freedom?

It was announced today that Shenzhen in China is going to issue 200,000 electronic ID's to vehicles with a pilot of 8 installed for the first test as a pilot that could lead to real time tracking of all cars.

If this is successful it will eventually be rolled out to all vehicles in China.

The reasoning for this is that China wants to lead the world in autonomous vehicles and as a part of that wants every vehicle to be able to talk to every other vehicle and road infrastructure.

This is pretty much essential to have automated vehicles know what is going on around them as that is the basis for decision making. As automated vehicles move onto the road they need to know the status of vehicles surrounding them as well as the status of the roads and roadworks.

If an autonomous vehicle knows that the car next to it that wants to change lanes is manually driven, its response may be different to what it would do if the car was in autonomous mode as people, unlike autonomous cars, are unpredictable and don't always make rational choices.

This sort of system is essential, and a great start and of course similar systems will be required around the world for many of the same reasons but the implementation will most likely be very different.

I said similar systems will be required but it will most likely be similar only in the sense of knowing what vehicle and road conditions are like but the social and political structures between China and western democracies are very different.  

Consider the possibility of a government being able to instantly know the location of any vehicle at any point in time, tie this in with police and transport department databases and you know who owns the vehicle and all their details.

Law enforcement agencies would be in seventh heaven and crime detection would be far easier and faster with computer evidence being presented in court. 

A great leap forward, Yes? maybe.

In Australia now we have the Attorney General passing laws for metadata retention and access by law agencies when most other countries are getting rid of theirs as well as increased powers for border protection and deportation laws. All of which are lauded and said to be for the greater good of the people and, after all If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear.

What happens if the government changes and we get a government that doesn't care about civil rights or personal privacy and we have a ready built system in every car that can track any person of interest at any time. Political opponents and possibly innocent suspects from metadata trolling or for any other arbitrary reason can be tracked in real time, anywhere on a whim.

For China, as a totalitarian state to introduce this technology now must give pause for thought to the west to decide if we can really afford or want to give up this level of privacy.  

This technology can be introduced without the tracking facilities but it will ultimately be decided by legislators and we have to hope that it is done with human rights in mind as well as law enforcement interests, but the way the world is going at the moment, human rights are starting to come a poor second to perceived security risks.

Autonomous vehicles have a great future but this is just one of the obstacles that will slow the implementation in the the west and will debate this for some time.

China will just do it, cause they can.

This technology in cars across the country will give China a great starting point (privacy issues not withstanding) and a huge head start in implementing this technology nation wide. The west will not have this in place for years for many reasons including privacy as mentioned, but for another more pragmatic western priority - who will pay for it?
Most likely not the government, and why should I pay for it so others who can afford automated cars can benefit?

When you think about it, the totalitarian state has a distinct advantage in implementing any technology as they can override any rules or privacy concern for "The greater good" of the nation.

If the state wants it, the state can have it. In the west we have to convince people and sell them the benefits as well as educate them to accept that the technology will be a benefit to the people and not be outweighed  by the cost or social implications. There has to be a clear cost/benefit return before it will get of the ground.

Education has to be a major factor, people don't want a car to make decisions for them, after all I can drive better than a computer, can't I?

Selling safety is an easy way to go. Back in the seventies, and yes I am speaking from memory, the road toll was horrific. In Western Australia there was a road death at least every day. Now there is half that and the population and number of vehicles on the road is far larger than it was then.

What made the difference? In large part it is technology. Seat belts, air bags, breathalysers, ABS, ESC and crumple zones have reduced the road toll significantly.A small collision 40-50 years ago often had a fatal or serious impact on the people involved, today the same collision is a minor thing with little or no human damage but thousand of dollars in (easily replacable) vehicle damage.
Progressive automation will drop this death and injury toll far lower than even todays' level.

This is a key selling point.

Today, in our local paper there is a major article asking to what can be done to reduce the road toll? Recently we have had a spate of country road deaths.

Perhaps one of the ways to reduce this is to have government spending more on autonomous implementation, raising awareness and spreading the safety message that way. Maybe then we can start to achieve a real, permanent, sustainable reduction in the number of people killed on our roads and end this carnage for once and for all.

We live in hope.

Part 6 - Morality, I've heard of that.

Hi again, first off the rank this week is the first ever crash of an autonomous vehicle where it was the vehicles fault, sort of.

The Google Lexus was doing around 2 mph and the bus about 15 mph, hardly speeds to cause much drama but enough for some people to say that proves that this technology is far from ready for use on the roads. Given that Google AV.s have done more than one and a half million miles of  automated driving and this is the first time that they have been responsible for an accident, to me, would indicate that this is a very mature technology indeed. I would hazard a guess the that distance with human drivers would not be so accident free.

Just on that subject the actual incident itself is interesting.
According to google the car was in the far right side of the lane to allow vehicles to pass on the left within the same lane when it encountered sandbags that it had to go back to the centre of the same lane to pass. It assumed the bus would give way to it as it was in the same lane but the manually driven bus continued to pass and the car scraped its side.

Morally, the bus was probably in the wrong but the car should have waited, fickle things drivers.

I was going to explore where the cheaper cars are in autonomosity (new word attributable here?) but frankly its too hard to sort out at the moment as I don't have a lot of spare time so I am going off on a tangent.

One of my colleagues at work started talking about something that gets a lot of attention today and a lot of people consider this to be a key to the whole autonomous thingywhatsit.
That discussion centres around the "Moral Conundrum".

In a nutshell you have the scenario where your AV is driving along, a truck is coming in the opposite direction and a kid runs out in front of you. The moral conundrum is what does the car do, swerve in front of the truck and kill the autonomous passengers or hit the kid. This comes up time and time again with slightly differing scenarios but with the same underlying moral dilemma and seeks an answer.

Personally I think it's a crock because it only looks at a thought out moral choice, one which an AI can't make and one which a person in that situation can't think fast enough to make anyway.

Lets run through this given today's level of technology and perspective.

You are driving along, a truck is coming the other way and a kid runs out in front of you. What do you do?
A deep and meaningful intellectual discussion with yourself over the moral situation doesn't get a look in, not enough time as instinct kicks in and your brain sends a message to hit the brakes, hard. This action takes time and you are now closer to the kid and you just might have time to react further, or you may not.

This now comes down to 2 things.

1. How fast you, as a person is capable of thinking, and
2, How modern is your car. Do you have ABS, ESC, or any other safety features that would allow you to take evasive action while braking.
If you have an older vehicle you are already committed as it is now in the hands of fate if you hit the kid or the car slides in front of the truck. End of story.

If you have modern safety features and can think fast enough you may be able to swerve and the human reaction would be away from the immediate danger, the child, without thinking of the truck hurtling toward you. All of the actions so far have been instinctive, split second reactions pretty much without intellectual thought.

Lets jump forward to an automated road where your Johnny cab is driving, an automated delivery truck is coming toward you and there is a stream of automated vehicles behind you and the truck.

Your lidar picks up the kid running toward the road, long before a driver would have seen it, and calculates an intersection trajectory. Based on that it immediately initiates deceleration based on optimal calculation. Within microseconds it has alerted the truck to the situation and all the vehicles behind which start to brake in synchronisation. The truck braking alerts all the vehicles behind it as well. As the child was detected well in advance the chance of a collision has now been reduced to minimal and the vehicle can decide, based on the actions of the child whether to brake harder or resume speed. If the child continues then avoidance decisions can be made based on all the collision calculations. Warning alerts (horn, siren etc) can also be initiated automatically during this process.

Given these two scenarios one thing is abundantly clear, the chances of survival of all the participants is greatly enhanced by the level of automation, just as ABS has saved live, ESC has saved live, seat belts and airbags save lives. AI calculation and response is far faster than human reaction and can keep calculating during an emergency and has the advantages of not suffering brain freeze trying to sort out a moral dilemma and because of that will most certainly save many more lives.

As I have said before and will say again (mainly because I probably forgot that I said it before, but I digress) Automated vehicles will not stop all road deaths. There will always be situations that can't be foreseen, or human error, acts of nature and increasingly, deliberate human intervention through malfeasance (nice word) or terrorist activity.

However 400,000 people throughout the world die every year and millions more are injured in motor vehicles. Automation will stop more than 90% of that over time.

So the only true moral dilemma is how fast can we get there and save these lives?

Part 5 - Where is here anyway?

Now seems to be a good time to have a look at where some manufacturers are at the moment.

As always money talks, so we will start at the top end of town where development usually starts and then flows down.

Mercedes 2016/17 E-Class, Teslas, Volvo, BMW and Audi are probably the closest we are yet to fully autonomous vehicles but I would suggest that Mercedes probably leads the field in mature tested technology.

 The new Mercedes E Class offers adaptive cruise control, keeping the correct distance from the vehicle in front and adjusting speed accordingly.

Interestingly, "speed limit pilot" doesn't rely on maps or GPS to determine the correct speed but actually reads the road signs and adjusts speed accordingly.

"Steering pilot" uses other vehicle and buildings to determine correct position when no lane markings are present.

Cross traffic detection at intersections with auto braking if the driver doesn't respond.

A real life saver is the detection of a hazard at the tail end of traffic where there is no room to maneuver and can brake earlier and avoid accidents totally and automatically up to 70 Kph in that situation.

Evasive active steering where a driver swerves the vehicle it can detect the hazard such as a pedestrian and control the direction and speed allowing easier recovery.

"Remote parking pilot" allows the car to park itself and get itself out and ready to go when requested from a phone app.

Vehicle to infrastructure or vehicle to vehicle communications (V2X) will be built in to the new series and accessed via mobile phone so events ahead such as collisions or roadworks can be known in advance.

Auto lane change is another feature. When the driver puts on the indicator to change lanes the vehicle checks if it is clear to do so and if safe will change lanes. At this point it isn't clear if it reads the road markings or uses look ahead radar to determine the legality and safety of the maneuver or relies on the driver's skill to determine that but it will detect oncoming vehicles or overtaking vehicles from behind and will execute the maneuver only when safe.

In compliance with the current laws in most countries it insists on the driver having hands on the wheel ready to assume control and if it doesn't detect that, it slows to a controlled halt.

In Nevada in the US Mercedes claims to have the first autonomous testing license plate for a full production vehicle.

These are just some of the safety features as we are primarily interested in the autonomous side. Luxury is of course way up there and the tech isn't visible apart from the configurable dash display screens, which is a good thing in a luxury car.

Tesla S. This is the newer kid on the block, an electric sports car with all the bells and whistles with a price tag to match.
Electric cars are the path to the future and in this regard Tesla has a distinct edge with its tech and with 0-100 Kph in 3 seconds it also has a lot of fans.

Autopilot, as Tesla calls their automation allows lane holding, lane change with indicator activation, adaptive cruise control, ESC and auto braking. It can also scan for parking space and parallel park.

These features are updated by software.

These are already on the road in Australia and are being tested using autonomous mode as most people would if they had access to them:

 Audi has  lot of technology in their concept vehicles and have done a lot of testing but their driver assist features appear to be more in the range of warning systems rather than direct action. That is it tells the driver rather than taking control directly.

From what I can gather they are taking a more transitional approach, that is building in the tech but not yet enabling it until the laws change and focusing more on the driver being warned rather than assisted.

 It appears that traffic jam control is a standard feature but prompts for driver control once the jam is cleared and speed increases. Probably a more conservative approach than some others.

Volvo, long know for driver safety has stated that by 2020 no one will be killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo car or SUV.

They are really really serious about safety and so confident in their technology for autonomous vehicles that they are the first that I know of to put their money where their mouth is:

Volvo CEO: We will accept all liability when our cars are in autonomous mode.

This of course is one of the big questions looming over the widespread use of autonomous vehicles, who has liability in the event of a collision?
But if you consider that in the long term there will be a huge reduction in the number of collisions then it starts to make economic sense for the manufacturers to wear this, but more of that in a later article.

As stated in an earlier blog, Volvo will have 100 autonomous cars on the road in normal drivers hands (or not if in autonomous mode but I digress) in the "Drive me" project in Gothenberg commencing in 2017 utilising Volvos IntelliSafe Autopilot-equipped XC90s.

This a fairly useful test as they will be used daily on commuter routes that will be at average speeds of 70 Kph. This daily use in real world conditions will go a long way to gaining acceptance of these vehicles on the road. The story on Volvos web site makes interesting reading and lays out their reasoning and why they want to do this now.

My read in this blog on the level of automation is derived from what information is available publicly, and the level of  automation on the road already in production vehicles. Industryweek.com had a summary of a report from navigant research in October 2015, based on not only current but future potential and is based on this criteria:

The analysis looked at the strategy and execution of autonomous vehicle technology for 18 automakers. The OEMs were rated on 12 criteria: vision, go-to market strategy, partnerships, production strategy, technology, geographic reach, sales, marketing and distribution, product capability, product quality and reliability, product portfolio, pricing and company commitment.

The full article is available but at a cost but the above is a summary that shows the relative rankings.

Obviously more detail than I have access to and makes a good read.

Interestingly Honda, Toyota and General Motors from mid price range manufacturers are all touted as possible leaders in this technology in the near future.

If nothing shiny comes along to distract me, next week I will look at the cars aimed at the average car owner.

Until then.

Part 4 - Up up and away.

Today I want to start with a couple of interesting developments that have occurred this week.

Firstly the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has replied to a Google submission that the "self driving system" can be driver of the vehicle. This is in the situation where there are no manual controls and the car itself is the driver.

There are other issues surrounding that but the NHTSDA may change their rules based on submissions from manufacturers regarding some regulations on auto safety feature including foot operated braking systems. The full story is here .

A video of the statement is here 

This is also interesting in that California is formulating laws that require a licensed driver in a vehicle ready to assume control at all times when running in autonomous mode. It will be interesting to see where this goes now.

 This new NHTSDA statement brings up a whole new range of options.

Google argues that having controls within an autonomous vehicle is actually a risk as drivers may try to take control of a situation that the computer can handle better.

Given that the car may legally be the driver, does that mean that the driver assist development going on as a transition to fully autonomous vehicles can be bypassed and move directly to the end goal?

If this is the case then Google, Lyft, Uber and others that want to bring in automated taxis will suddenly be in an arms race to be the first to market and the whole process could happen far faster than originally anticipated. Google has stated that it wants them on road by 2020, this new statement may even accelerate that.

I think that the development of autonomous taxis is the catalyst that will launch the entire world wide move to autonomous vehicle for a very simple reason. The cost to manufacture anything new before economy of scale kicks in is very expensive. To build a consumer vehicle with all these features would put it initially out of the reach of the average driver.
To a company like Google, Lyft or Uber it makes a great deal of sense to be the first to market and grab a huge slice before anyone else can. When you can afford to order these vehicles in taxi fleet quantities the unit cost is far lower than it would be for a normal consumer. Once these are mass produced to a standard model the cost of custom produced parts becomes less as they become standard parts produced in bulk. 

Back off the soapbox and back to the news.

Secondly Right here in Perth Western Australia we will soon have an autonomous bus appearing on the streets. 

Purchased by the RAC this vehicle will be tested first on the RAC private testing area before being considered for use in public.The electric bus, built in France can carry up to 18 passengers at up to 45 kph. The state government will be using this as a catalyst for the legal framework required in Western Australia to allow autonomous vehicles on the road. Interestingly enough the law in WA requires a licensed driver with at least one hand on the wheel at all times while the vehicle is in motion.
The official media statement from the Minister for Transport is here.
An interesting quote from that media statement that is being heard more frequently just about everywhere is: "It is not a matter of if this technology will come to WA, but when it will, and that time is fast approaching. " 

This is the type of bus being trialed.

Now that I have started of with current news I might carry on in that vein this week, mainly because I am too busy to write something truly meaningful.

Google, arguably the leader in development of autonomous cars and one of the few I haven't for some reason referred to frequently (possibly because the Mercedes and Teslas are way cooler) has plans now for its electric autonomous car to be charged while driving.

Meanwhile in other news, the military has taken a keen interest, considering that the basically kicked of the whole process with their original challenges in 2004 but according to this article are only looking at the simpler part of driverless convoys.

An interesting debate is whether autonomous cars will largely replace private ownership and become a car as a service. An interesting article sees the US automakers backing the thought that people will want a car like a mobile phone, not hired but owned.

On the other hand Uber is openly discussing a driverless world and its plans are squarely aimed in that direction and as the Uber CEO stated "When there's no other dude in the car, the cost of Uber becomes cheaper than owning a car" 

I would welcome feedback and possible debate as this is all new ground and, as yet, there is no "True Path"as to what will happen in the future and all options are still open.

So help me out here I want to start some discussion that might help to get this whole thing more widely known.

Feel free to contribute.

Part 3 – The good, the bad and the ugly.

This week I want to talk about the social impact of automated vehicles and how they will change the world as we know it.

The impact of autonomous vehicles and the way it will change roles and processes within society will result in this being the most disruptive technology to date, up to and including the Internet. That is a bold statement but the implications for society are huge, and that’s no exaggeration.

Motor vehicle collisions today are a daily occurrence and estimates put 95% of these down to driver error.
“Road accidents are a major cause of death in many countries. Estimates indicate that approximately 400,000 people die every year in road accidents around the world. Deaths and injuries caused by road accidents result in significant social and economic costs and it has been estimated that in OECD countries, approximately 1 - 2 per cent of GNP is lost every year due to road traffic accidents.” (Report from Monash University)

Let’s jump forward 10-20 years and see what we have.

By this time autonomous vehicles will be the vast majority of vehicles on the road and a few things will have changed. Manual vehicles, probably not outlawed, but most likely would be required to have a transmitter to alert autonomous vehicles and other manual vehicles as a warning that they can be unpredictable as they have people driving, much like learner plates in Australia today warn other drivers to expect possible erratic behaviour.

Collisions will have reduced dramatically and the effect of this are worth examining in more detail. as the flow on effects are huge.

To start with, let’s have a look at the police and how their role has changed.

The good

Huge resources have been tied up in traffic enforcement since motorised vehicles first appeared.

Now, for the first time, police can be released to do real policing.

No (or minimal) traffic patrolling, no road rage, speeding or drunk driving. No random breath test, license plate scanning or driver license enforcement. No fine follow up and license testing for most users. No hoons, burnouts or high speed pursuits. No traffic duty when lights fail or responding to road collisions and best of all...... Not having to deliver bad news to family that there has been the death of a loved one in a vehicle, and as any police officer anywhere will tell you, is the worst possible part of policing today.

Apart from the toll on the people involved in accidents, the trauma also affects all emergency personal as well, particularly where kids are involved.
Imagine the number of officers freed from these duties and the reduction in cost of the police vehicle fleet.

Now, imagine the flow on effect even further with regard to hospital and ambulance services, trauma teams and reduction in ongoing intensive rehabilitation, prosthetic limbs, wheelchairs and access, and trauma from losing families. Huge resources within the medical system freed up, reduced or redirected to more productive areas.

Main Roads will be affected in a large way as it is forecast that traffic will decrease dramatically due to less personal ownership, therefore no or greatly reduced traffic lights. No more roundabouts, Speed humps or, hopefully, congestion, although that is debatable.

Here, in Western Australia the only government document I have seen so far is in this interesting paper on the whole subject by Main Roads themselves, but even this carries a disclaimer "The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Main Roads Western Australia".

The development of warning systems will need to be done where conditions change due to scheduled or remedial roadworks occurring by Main roads and other authorities.

The flow on effects continue, to suppliers of police vehicles, speed cameras, traffic light manufacturers and ambulances, repair services, suppliers and contractors involved in these systems.

The bad
Every silver cloud has a black lining or something like that.

Many people who work in transport and related industries will be out of work or doing jobs totally different to what they do now.

I believe the first major hit, and this is probably closer than you may think, will be taxi drivers. With the ongoing war with Uber in Australia and other companies such as lyft overseas the taxi drivers are feeling the pinch now. With these ride share companies inking deals with car manufacturers to produce autonomous taxis, the writing is on the wall.

Unsuspecting Uber drivers will be hit as well.

Truck drivers won't be a long way behind with automated delivery systems coming into play and long distance deliveries fully automated. That leads to truck stops, motels and service stations losing large amounts of trade.

 

The flow on effects mentioned earlier will all have impact on jobs, people building roads, traffic lights, service vehicle sales,fleet suppliers and lease companies will all have to change the way they do business. Insurance companies will need to reassess their whole industry and determining the legal liability is a minefield all of its own and will be the subject of a later article.

The Ugly

Driving habit as automated vehicles start to appear will create a whole heap of issues.

Initially do we need to mark autonomous vehicles someway? If so there will be idiots who force their way in front because they know the car will automatically give way to avoid collision. This could cause collisions if the autonomous car is being driven manually.

Laws determining when and where they can be used will be a major issue and many battles will be fought in this arena.

Car parks will have to be redeveloped and councils will lose the current huge revenue they receive through parking fees and fines. Governments will lose income from drivers licenses, vehicle registration and the state government insurance office will lose a large part of its business if the number of vehicles on the road reduce as much as is being predicted.

Panel beaters will be another greatly reduced industry as will car accessory makers and resellers.

This, and the previous posts are just an overview of what is to come and the depth of detail out there is immense and growing daily.

Next week I want to look at some of the tech involved and how it works, then, I may look at differences in outlook between manufacturers.

 
Stay tuned....