Part 31 - The age of Reason

Thomas Paine once said - "The real man smiles in trouble, gathers strength from distress, and grows brave by reflection".

In an age where automation is quickly becoming the norm we have to learn from the changes in our society and adapt accordingly. 

In a new world where we want everything and we want it now we no longer have the luxury of waiting. When something new that everyone wants becomes available we don't want to wait for it, we just want it.

To give you an example of how time frames are becoming compressed have a look at the social phenomenon of Susan Boyle. 

In 2009 she appeared on the popular television show Britain's Got Talent (BGT) and instantly became a world wide household name. At that time the Internet had just becoming the huge behemoth it is now and the BGT video became one of the most viewed videos throughout the world.

Her popularity was immense and I happened to be fortunate enough to be in the UK when the finals were held and saw the incredible publicity and euphoria that it created as it happened.

On the downside, at that point the music industry was still in denial of the Internet and was clinging ferociously to its old distribution model.

With the Internet giving free publicity world wide to Susan Boyle, it took a full seven months for her music to be released for sale, and then it was only a CD with many tracks no one wanted. 

It did sell in the millions but imagine the sales today if it was released within a day of the free publicity via the Internet?

Prophetic interview with David Bowie who saw many things coming from the Internet that most people missed, way back in 1999.

The desire for things to happen fast and the need to get to market quickly has created a manufacturing conundrum.

There are a couple of options on how to achieve a quick move to market:
Outsource it to Asia where they have a huge and agile manufacturing industry, or do it domestically by automating the workforce. 

Given that Asia is now also automating their workforce it doesn't leave a lot of options.

With automated vehicles doing away with multitudes of jobs ranging from Taxi and truck drivers to panel beaters and road workers this also adds to the problem.

Now, given the computers are used to design the new products and automation (domestic or foreign) is increasing used for the manufacturing it creates a major problem for the world.

The business owners can see huge long term savings from automation by downsizing staff and new products can be turned out much faster at lower cost.

The logical progression here is that all industries will be forced to head down that path eventually or die for the simple reason, as I've said before (ad-nauseum) that once the technology is out there it won't go away. 
You can only ignore or oppose technological change for a certain amount of time before you just start to look silly.

As automation increases what will happen to the market?

A mass production manufacturing industry needs mass consumers.
If the consumers are increasingly out of work, where is the market?  

Now I am the first to admit that I am not an economist, manufacturer or social engineer, but even I can see this as a problem.

So how do you turn your unemployed into consumers?

This is going to be a major issue as time goes on.

You could take the head in the sand attitude and follow Trumps view. 
This would bring manufacturing back to your own country by government protectionism and create jobs but at most, this will be unsustainable and expensive - unless you automate, which then doesn't bring jobs.

So, given that the rest of the world will continue to embrace globalism and automation at an ever increasing pace, then as a global society (sans U.S.) we need to look at the people who don't have technical skills or the ability to improve themselves by themselves.

One such solution that's been kicked around for quite some time now is the Guaranteed Basic Income. This is a situation where the government pays you a basic wage, whether you work or not.

In one stroke you do away with unemployment benefits (food stamps in countries that have them) and other social systems. There is no need for any control as everyone is entitled to the income.

Industry pays for it through taxation.

Communism? Not really. It's actually a logical extension of Capitalism.

Automation is a situation that industry is creating that carries the seed of it's own destruction by creating massive unemployment and therefore removing it's own market.

How do you keep consumers?

The Guaranteed Basic Income is not a new idea. Nixon (of all people) actually floated this and had a test run that showed it to be viable. It did not discourage people from working, did not :"break the bank" and was a failure only for political reasons.

This article  documents the trial and shows the huge results achieved from the testing of the theory but was shot down by harking back to an old English suggestion 150 years before of doing something similar. This English example was heavily based on the assumption of the "lazy poor" where it was assumed if you got paid you wouldn't want to work.  

Nixon's test basically disproved that but he chose to put politics before people as so often happens and it morphed into something else.

Now this is all very radical in today's society but given that automation will cost jobs there has to be some way of ensuring that we have consumers to buy the products that automation can provide.

That may be enough to have this looked at in a more serious light now that something actually will be needed as high volume permanent unemployment is no longer just theory.

This concept is, logically enough, gaining traction in the Nordic countries.

Maybe we are approaching the age of reason at last. 
Or maybe not, lets just wait for the official tweet. 


P.S. It is now official as of 20/1/2017, the whole world has the DT's 

noun, Pathology.

1.

a withdrawal syndrome occurring in persons who have developedphysiological dependence on alcohol, characterized by tremor, visualhallucinations, and autonomic instability.

Abbreviation: d.t.

Also called the d.t.'s.

Part 30 - All good things come to he who waits.

Hi all,
I did promise that I was going to have my first ride on the Navya/RAC Intellibus and do a story on it but alas, it was not to be.

There are some issues with the bus. These appear to be mechanical, not related to the actual tech of the machine but probably more to the harsh conditions to be found here.

In recent days we have had a number of hot days (37 C or higher (100 F + in old tech)) which have had an effect on the air conditioning and the doors of the bus designed in the much cooler European climate. I believe our lack of infrastructure with Mobile (cell) signal inadequacy has an impact as well.

My understanding is that support is on the way and local training will also occur to enable these issues to be resolved locally in the future.

As with any new technology there are always teething troubles and we learn from them and passenger safety is the primary concern, hence the delays.

Hopefully I will get to to see it soon.

The Detroit Motor show 2017 is underway and all the new shiny metal is on display.
Of course tech is highlighted any time you are talking cars these days.

The top ten tech cars of the show are here.

Most of these, and we are talking cars you and I can afford, not top of the line machines, have incorporated a lot of driver assist features including adaptive cruise control, lane departure assist, pedestrian detection and pre-collision detection. That last one boggles the imagination, does it take action or just give time for you to say "oh S..."?

Being a Toyota enthusiast, I know not the most glamorous machines, I find the new Camry looks great.
In Australia the six cylinder version comes out as a separate model called the Aurion (which I drive) and love and it will be interesting to see what the new Aurion looks like when it arrives here.

So the new features will soon be standard on all models and people will start to see the benefits of the car assuming some control and warning capability, which will go a long way in driving acceptance of the tech.

It seems the higher end machines are not at the Detroit show and we will have to wait for the New York and other shows before we see the latest tech.

Concept cars appeared, as they do at these shows and except for the first one are generally electric and autonomous.

Not a lot happening at the moment so ... stay tuned.

Part 29 - It's a new world, its a new day - Feeling good

The turn of a new year.
With the advent of a new year comes new things, promises and challenges.
This year, more than ever I am glad I live in Australia.

I think the challenges we face pale in comparison to many other countries and for that I am grateful.

Last week saw CES in Las Vegas happening with quite a bit of emphasis on Autonomous Vehicles.

Ford made a major announcement that its Autonomous Vehicle will be released for on road use for Uber type services in 2021 (less than 4 years from the time of writing) and available in showrooms for public purchase by 2025.
The major difference here is that it won't have steering wheel or pedals for the taxi fleet. It is undecided at this point whether the private owner model will or won't have them.

 They are looking to have 30 vehicles (with safety drivers) on the road shortly and 90 by the end of this year.

This of course is very dependent on how the new US President reacts to computers taking over the current jobs of drivers in the Taxi/Uber industry.

This creates a major conundrum and a huge headache for someone who wants to keep jobs.
The question is, do you move to Automated Vehicles and keep the tech industry at the leading edge or keep the manual jobs and let China and others take the lead in technology which will probably cost the US economy far more in the longer term?

One of the challenges I alluded to earlier and the tip of the iceberg when it comes to automation.

So, what else has come out of CES?

Chrysler has announced a Concept AV called the Portal.
This doesn't physically exist but has a great CGI animation.

According to the blurb it is designed "by millennials for millennials".

The new startup Faraday Future’s FF 91 is supposedly in production soon and has several test vehicles.

Toyota has a concept called the, oddly enough, Concept - i.

 Apart from the concepts, it appears the least reported but most significant things top affect AV's is the underlying technology.

Most of the developers were in the car parks showing off their new tech but this stuff doesn't have the glamour and therefore doesn't rate as highly in the news reports but is the structure that will make or break acceptance of the technology.

Can't wait for the day when a robot at CES steals an autonomous car, hacks it and does burnouts in the carpark. 

On another note, I have mentioned that Navya along with the RAC and the State Government here in Perth Western Australia is trialing an autonomous bus which they refer to as the Intellibus and is taking passengers around South Perth.

I am fortunate enough to have a seat on a test run next week and will record this and will do a blog on the experience.

Something to look forward to for me at least, you, maybe not so much.