Part 3 – The good, the bad and the ugly.

This week I want to talk about the social impact of automated vehicles and how they will change the world as we know it.

The impact of autonomous vehicles and the way it will change roles and processes within society will result in this being the most disruptive technology to date, up to and including the Internet. That is a bold statement but the implications for society are huge, and that’s no exaggeration.

Motor vehicle collisions today are a daily occurrence and estimates put 95% of these down to driver error.
“Road accidents are a major cause of death in many countries. Estimates indicate that approximately 400,000 people die every year in road accidents around the world. Deaths and injuries caused by road accidents result in significant social and economic costs and it has been estimated that in OECD countries, approximately 1 - 2 per cent of GNP is lost every year due to road traffic accidents.” (Report from Monash University)

Let’s jump forward 10-20 years and see what we have.

By this time autonomous vehicles will be the vast majority of vehicles on the road and a few things will have changed. Manual vehicles, probably not outlawed, but most likely would be required to have a transmitter to alert autonomous vehicles and other manual vehicles as a warning that they can be unpredictable as they have people driving, much like learner plates in Australia today warn other drivers to expect possible erratic behaviour.

Collisions will have reduced dramatically and the effect of this are worth examining in more detail. as the flow on effects are huge.

To start with, let’s have a look at the police and how their role has changed.

The good

Huge resources have been tied up in traffic enforcement since motorised vehicles first appeared.

Now, for the first time, police can be released to do real policing.

No (or minimal) traffic patrolling, no road rage, speeding or drunk driving. No random breath test, license plate scanning or driver license enforcement. No fine follow up and license testing for most users. No hoons, burnouts or high speed pursuits. No traffic duty when lights fail or responding to road collisions and best of all...... Not having to deliver bad news to family that there has been the death of a loved one in a vehicle, and as any police officer anywhere will tell you, is the worst possible part of policing today.

Apart from the toll on the people involved in accidents, the trauma also affects all emergency personal as well, particularly where kids are involved.
Imagine the number of officers freed from these duties and the reduction in cost of the police vehicle fleet.

Now, imagine the flow on effect even further with regard to hospital and ambulance services, trauma teams and reduction in ongoing intensive rehabilitation, prosthetic limbs, wheelchairs and access, and trauma from losing families. Huge resources within the medical system freed up, reduced or redirected to more productive areas.

Main Roads will be affected in a large way as it is forecast that traffic will decrease dramatically due to less personal ownership, therefore no or greatly reduced traffic lights. No more roundabouts, Speed humps or, hopefully, congestion, although that is debatable.

Here, in Western Australia the only government document I have seen so far is in this interesting paper on the whole subject by Main Roads themselves, but even this carries a disclaimer "The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Main Roads Western Australia".

The development of warning systems will need to be done where conditions change due to scheduled or remedial roadworks occurring by Main roads and other authorities.

The flow on effects continue, to suppliers of police vehicles, speed cameras, traffic light manufacturers and ambulances, repair services, suppliers and contractors involved in these systems.

The bad
Every silver cloud has a black lining or something like that.

Many people who work in transport and related industries will be out of work or doing jobs totally different to what they do now.

I believe the first major hit, and this is probably closer than you may think, will be taxi drivers. With the ongoing war with Uber in Australia and other companies such as lyft overseas the taxi drivers are feeling the pinch now. With these ride share companies inking deals with car manufacturers to produce autonomous taxis, the writing is on the wall.

Unsuspecting Uber drivers will be hit as well.

Truck drivers won't be a long way behind with automated delivery systems coming into play and long distance deliveries fully automated. That leads to truck stops, motels and service stations losing large amounts of trade.

 

The flow on effects mentioned earlier will all have impact on jobs, people building roads, traffic lights, service vehicle sales,fleet suppliers and lease companies will all have to change the way they do business. Insurance companies will need to reassess their whole industry and determining the legal liability is a minefield all of its own and will be the subject of a later article.

The Ugly

Driving habit as automated vehicles start to appear will create a whole heap of issues.

Initially do we need to mark autonomous vehicles someway? If so there will be idiots who force their way in front because they know the car will automatically give way to avoid collision. This could cause collisions if the autonomous car is being driven manually.

Laws determining when and where they can be used will be a major issue and many battles will be fought in this arena.

Car parks will have to be redeveloped and councils will lose the current huge revenue they receive through parking fees and fines. Governments will lose income from drivers licenses, vehicle registration and the state government insurance office will lose a large part of its business if the number of vehicles on the road reduce as much as is being predicted.

Panel beaters will be another greatly reduced industry as will car accessory makers and resellers.

This, and the previous posts are just an overview of what is to come and the depth of detail out there is immense and growing daily.

Next week I want to look at some of the tech involved and how it works, then, I may look at differences in outlook between manufacturers.

 
Stay tuned....