The time has come, the walrus said to speak of many things, of shoes and ships and sealing wax, of cabbages and kings.
But now the time has come for stars to shine, new days of wonder from afar,
Singapore has today, launched the first fully autonomous car.
A taxi, on the road, no driver, all alone, brave new world but a world of one,
The first of many, of things to come,
A start, a bright light, but at last......... the first one.
(Apologies to Lewis Carroll)
Time for celebration. I had no idea of what to put in a blog this week until I saw this article that Singapore is launching the first fully autonomous taxi service today.
It consist initially of six vehicles that can be called via a mobile phone app and is free service for selected users.
Admittedly it is only within a 2.5 square mile area within the One North business park but it is a start. They plan to have 12 on the road by the end of the year and is a result of Singapores' autonomous vehicle initiative.
Singapores' government has been wanting to reduce the number of vehicles for quite some time and sees this as the ideal way to do it.
They are hoping to reduce the number of vehicles on the road significantly, and where an entire country is smaller than many cities, it is a very desirable aim.
There will be an engineer sitting in the drivers seat for some time as this is a testing phase, not a final release version and you do need to keep safety in the forefront.
The first autonomous taxi on the road, the beginning of a whole new world...
Due to personal commitments I may not be able to write a new blog for 3-4 weeks unless I get really lucky, but given past experience that's unlikely.
The metaphorical wheel has turned full circle once again.
The road map for autonomous vehicles has long been seen as a progressive path with driver assist features improving the driving experience and making it easier for the driver. This automation takes away many of the decisions, smoothes out the ride makes it all just that much safer.
This of course is a huge improvement and does make driving easier and safer but unfortunately with people being what they are there are unintended consequences emerging.
Once the novelty of the tech wears off, human nature kicks in and the little voices in our head say .. if the car can do it, has done it for months, therefore I trust it to keep doing it.
This mindset has proved fatal in one instance with a Tesla and has had many others blaming the vehicles because they, as the driver, weren't paying attention.
To be fair, this is a pretty valid argument. If the manufacturer has a feature it should work consistently, shouldn't it?
This is the catch 22. It is beta software in the Tesla and it does work but you do need to keep an eye on it all the time, just in case.
However drivers don't pay attention all the time even when driving without any driver assist features as the road toll and panel beaters will tell you. So with very sophisticated driver assist features people become even more complacent.
This is the core problem that Google has been talking about for some time and they have the philosophy that an automated vehicle should be fully automated, no pedals, no steering wheel and no way of the driver taking control.
Other manufacturers are starting to think along the same lines with Ford announcing they will have a fully autonomous vehicle for mass transport use on the road by 2021 and are looking to implement it through ride sharing services. This is less than 5 years away.
This is a nice argument but does put a lot more pressure on the manufacturers because, once this is released there is no turning back and the technology has to be spot on right from the start.
Statistics will prove that the number of collisions, deaths and injuries will reduce significantly but even so, once someone dies in a fully autonomous vehicle all bets are off and the public trust will be severely eroded. At this point there will be a severe swing by the fringe to roll it back and there will be a lot of debate.
Many people are saying that this technology should be abandoned. (Sorry ignore the previous line, I've just been reading US political stories).
So this is the conundrum....
Do we continue with driver assist and its limitations or do we go the big bang theory and get rid of all controls?
Interestingly enough some companies appear to be going this route now but keeping it simple and using it in controlled environments.
Companies such as Navya, Easymile and Ford have autonomous buses for use in private environments usually business parks or universities where the environment is more sedate, low traffic densities and the speed of the vehicles can be restricted. This gives a real world but much safer testing environment. However when this extends to road conditions it faces the same challenges as other autonomous vehicles although speed limitations conceivably could stay lower than normal traffic rates.
Whichever way it goes with automation, there will be a considerable overall reduction in road carnage either way and we have to hope that the big picture takes precedence over the hysteria.
Singapore is a modern clean city state and I have been fortunate enough to visit there on several occasions over the years.
I first went there in 2002 and found it to be very quiet, sedate, very very clean, neat and very easy to get around with low traffic and a fast efficient MRT rail system.
On my last visit two years ago I found it to be far more vibrant and it has grown considerably since my last visit.
Given that it is a city state with limited land resources of 719 sq km (278 sq miles) and a population of more that five and a half million people it has its own set of unique problems .
Not the least of these is traffic.
Given that a basic Corolla on the road with all government fees and charges will cost over $US100,000 in the first year, it is staggering that the government has had to take steps to reduce the number of vehicles it will allow on the road for the next year because of traffic volume and the long transit times around this small country.
As I said I have been there a few times and have noticed how much longer it now takes to get somewhere by taxi compared to when I first visited.
Why you ask? Good thing you did really, so now I have a reason to continue.
Singapore is just off the equator so it doesn't get snow or ice. It has a good road infrastructure, relatively flat land and a government with good control and able to implement new policies when they need to.
To tackle the traffic problem the government has committed to have autonomous taxis on the road and has already started testing with Delhi automotive.
With taxi fares expected to drop by a third with the removal of the driver and dramatically increased traffic flow it seems an ideal solution for this small but progressive state.
Their ambitious time frame starts with testing this year (2016) and concluding in 2020 with a complete fleet of fully autonomous taxis on the road replacing the existing manual fleet.
Given the known phenomenon of taxis disappearing off the streets when it rains (everyday in Singapore) this should also help considerably in getting people moving.
Given that this is a very ambitious time frame, it remains to be seen if this happens as quickly as they hope but given the commitment and need, Singapore could well lead the world in implementing this technology.
On another related front, Singapore's SMRT Corporation is to provide automated transport pods for use in airports, campuses, resorts and industrial parks.These can carry up to 24 people at speeds up to 40 km per hour.
Many countries are talking a lot about autonomous vehicles,
Asian countries are doing a lot more than talking about it, possibly because of greater population pressures and growing economies creating a more urgent need.
The west has had private ownership of vehicles for a very long time but many Asian countries have only recently reached the level of wealth where individuals can afford to buy cars and they are doing so in ever increasing numbers.
This has created a boom which in turn has created huge congestion and pollution issues which puts enormous pressure on governments to keep this growth sustainable.
Automated vehicles may be the key to having efficient transport for all and to keep pollution down by reducing the number of vehicles on the road.
So what seems to be tight time frames to us in the west may actually be achievable in the east....
After all, they have a very big incentive to make it work.
They plan to have 12 on the road by the end of the year and is a result of Singapores' autonomous vehicle initiative.