Part 2 - Are we there yet?

What I am focusing on this week is an understanding of the levels of development and where we are at this point and, hopefully, a bit of a road map to how we get to a fully automated driverless world.

To know where we are in relation to total automation we need to look at the levels involved in getting there, then we can start to gauge where manufacturers are in their production vehicles at this point in time.

Up until recent years all vehicles were at Level 0, that is the driver totally in control of the vehicle including braking, steering and throttle at all times.

Level 1 is the start of Automation, where control functions start to appear such as stability control, pre-charged brakes, where the vehicle automatically assists with braking to enable the driver to regain control of the vehicle or stop faster than possible by acting alone.

In the previous article I gave an overview of what is to come and a taste of what is out there now just to whet your appetite. This is an amazing technology and a great time to be alive and be a part of it.

Level 2 involves the automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. An example of combined functions enabling a Level 2 system is adaptive cruise control in combination with lane centering.

Level 3 enables the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control, but with sufficiently comfortable transition time. The Google car is an example of limited self-driving automation.

Level 4 is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.

These definitions are paraphrased from the From US department of Transport document and the full text is here.

In recent years, all new cars sold (at least in Australia) have to have antilock braking systems (ABS), Electronic Stability Control (ESC). This is in addition to multiple airbags and a swathe of other safety features.

I know from first-hand experience how well these work as my wife and I were driving north along the coastal road in Western Australia, several hundred Kilometres north of Perth in the middle of nowhere doing a speed that we will say was within the limit of 110KPH (65 MPH for our less worldly American friends).I was driving my wife’s’(then) new Yaris sedan (a VIOS to our Asian readers) when a group of very large feathered emus decided that running out in front of a car travelling at high speed was a great idea. I saw them and reacted by hitting the brake, thinking at the same time that I didn’t have a prayer of stopping. To my amazement the car stopped, without screaming burning rubber about a hands breath from the nearest emu which by the way gave me the evilest look of distain before sauntering off. Given that these birds are about two metres tall with most of their body higher than the cars bonnet, would have meant that if we hadn’t stopped we would have been sharing the front seat and none of us would have been happy.

So ABS plus ESC meant both us and the emus got to go home shaken but alive. Score one for technology. This is Level 1 technology

As you will be well aware, new innovation in cars starts at the high end models, but these days it filters down to the cheaper cars very quickly so we now have all new cars with these features and another drop in the collision rate.

Newer features out now on even middle of the range cars include lane centering that keep the car in the lane without driver action, adaptive cruise control where the car automatically brakes when it senses a possible collision or slower vehicle ahead and auto lane change where it sense cars nearby and when the indictor is on automatically changes lane when it is safe to do so. This is Level 2 technology.

Mercedes Benz Intelligent Drive has many level 3 features as the video below explains.

Impressive stuff, even more so when you consider that video is from 2013!

Today many manufacturers have this level of sophistication.

Just considering the safety factors alone makes this an exciting process.

Volvo states that no one should be killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo by 2020, presumably they are discounting heart attacks and total stupidity but I digress.

Now we know that some companies are at level 2 and some at level 3 but what are they working on now?

Transition to the future.

What are manufacturers planning?

In the higher end of the market they are well ahead with Mercedes having the concept F105 on the road and the new E class and S series have many features needed for fully autonomous cars

BMW appears to have a car on the road, driving autonomously about 70% of the time but they don’t call it that and don’t appear to be pushing it. A recent article here shows where they’re at, and from my view it’s a long way down the track already but from a company that’s sell a driving experience, it puts itself in a difficult position.

 Tesla sees their fully autonomous car on the road by 2020 but some statements seem to have that happening earlier.

Volvo is also there in a big way with 100 automated cars on the road next year (2017) in customers hands (well sort off as they won't need hands on).

In the lower cost cars we also have a lot of activity.

Toyota plans to have an autonomous car on the road by 2020 in time for the Tokyo Olympics.

Ford appears to be a little behind the others but given their resources they could leap forward. According to a Forbes article Ford has a ten year program started in 2015 and has not released a timeline for production autonomous vehicles.

Nissan says it will have one on the road by 2020

There are many other manufacturers in the field and it looks like it’s starting to really hot up, primarily because they can see that if they aren’t in the market then they won’t be in the industry for long.

This very impetus to be first will be a driving force that will accelerate this market penetration far faster than most people believe possible.

Another complicating factor and driving force is companies like Google, Uber and Lyft who are not manufacturers in their own right but have a huge market for these vehicles, and very deep pockets to make it happen.

Ok so that’s it for this week.

Now that we have the basics down and the technology covered, we need to start looking at the issues that this transformation will have on society.

To give you some idea of the impact of technological change on society, although in a different time and under a different social structure, have a look at this short video of the industrial revolution.

The effect on our society of autonomous vehicles will be different to that but it will be as disruptive to many areas of our industries.

Part 1 In the beginning...

Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles.  That is a deceptively simple name for something that is going to create far more social disruption than the internet ever did and will change (and save) so many lives forever.

Most people think that self-driving vehicles are something a long way off in the in the future but the reality is that it’s already here and being used on our roads now.  Tesla has them on the road as does Mercedes new E-Class model . This is not totally tested full automation but very close to it and people are using it on city streets, not perhaps legally but it is happening.

Volvo, Toyota and Audi will have fully automated systems or very close to it, in their production vehicles in 2017. Most manufacturers are saying that fully automated vehicles will be on sale by 2020.  

Below is what manufacturers are aiming for and this is Mercedes functional prototype:

   

Of course all of this is using new technology not approved for use on the road, but that doesn’t mean that everyone listens.  If it’s available there will always be people who will use it regardless of the current law. Just because they shouldn’t do it doesn’t mean they won’t.

Which creates a huge problem for governments who haven’t started considering this yet, but more on that later.

About this blog.

This blog is designed to raised awareness and hopefully start discussions so that government and industry can begin to prepare for a technology that is going to create the biggest upheaval since the industrial revolution.

I do not profess to be an industry expert but I do have an extensive electronics and computing background and an intense interest in this exciting technology and I am researching and reading everything I can find on the subject to increase my knowledge. I also have an interest in sharing information, hence this blog.

I am based in Perth Western Australia, a state already implementing automated mining vehicles and I will be adding to this blog  regularly and using available literature  addressing many of the issue surrounding the inevitable implementation of this technology.

So, let’s begin at the beginning with a couple of things that I consider to be facts in the real world:

·         Once a technology is invented, if it has a use it will be used. If it is something people want then there is no way that it can be forced back into the box regardless of the implications. For example cassette tapes, Television  and the internet were all considered at one stage or another to be the end of a segment of the media entertainment industry and were actively opposed including trying to block the technology. After initial and prolonged opposition, industry (and everyone else) found that they had to adapt or die because the technology would not go away, so they reluctantly adapted. So now we have Itunes, Spotify, Netfix and others which now expand the industries previously considered doomed through technology.  

·         Jobs change over time as industries change and technologies not only create new jobs but make others redundant. For example, lamplighter jobs are in short supply today as are ice delivery men and nightsoil carters (look it up).

This has huge implications as virtually every sector of society will be challenged by autonomous vehicles. Just think about the role of police, traffic management, emergency services and the taxi industry when all vehicles are automated and you may begin to see the tip of the iceberg.

·         Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will happen, indeed is already in use and it’s not just confined to cars.

·         People will still die due to vehicles. This is an inescapable fact of life. No matter how good the automation, safety and technology, there will always be circumstances beyond our control including nature and stupidity. Someone dropping a brick from an overpass can still be fatal, but you would probably have a better chance of survival if the car detects it.

Back to the future.

What are autonomous vehicles?

Any type of vehicle can be autonomous, it’s not necessarily just confined to cars but is generally used in reference to cars as below.  

 Gartner defines  "An autonomous vehicle is one that can drive itself from  starting point to a predetermined destination in "autopilot " mode using various in vehicle technologies and sensors, including adaptive cruise control, active steering (steer by wire), anti-lock braking systems (brake by wire), GPS navigation technology, lasers and radar.

In Western Australia, mining giant Rio Tinto already use automation for iron ore trucks to move millions of tons a year around mine sites (200M tons already moved by June 2014). The ore is then transported over a virtually automated rail system. Rio’s aim is mining automation as per the Mine of the future.

An automated drone (Ehang 184) that can carry a passenger has been unveiled and could be in production in a few years but this carries more implications for safety than a car does.  

So where are we now and where will we be in a few years?

Well that depends on what level of automation, so let’s focus initially about where we are a few years down the track when full automation is with us and then we’ll work backward.

Consider the scenario where you no longer own one or two cars but call a car as a service when you want to go somewhere. When there is no driver, cheaper, lighter, safer mass produced cars are plentiful and anyone can safely use one at the touch of a button, then it will be far cheaper not to own a car at all. Today most privately cars are idle 95% of the time!

Traffic accidents will reduce significantly with full automation as the human factor is mostly removed so less safety features will need to be built into vehicles, creating lighter fuel efficient cars.

Traffic congestion will be a thing of the past, less car ownership, more shared vehicles giving less travel time, higher speed transit as well as more efficient road utilisation.

Road design will change as there will eventually be no need for traffic lights, roundabouts, overhead signs or indeed any signs.

Police can concentrate on law enforcement, no vehicle checks, drunk driving, road rage, high speed pursuits, traffic fine enforcement or speed cameras.

Hospital trauma sections will wind down as road trauma will reduce significantly. This will have a flow on effect to ambulance services and fire rescue.

Less pollution due to lighter more fuel efficient vehicles.

Government outlay and revenue will be severely impacted.

Vehicle insurance will change drastically due to lower claims for damage and loss of life.

Deliveries can be automated and happen around the clock without penalty rates, sickness or strikes.

On the downside the social upheaval will be immense.
Eventually most drivers will no longer be required creating a large shift in service industry jobs.

Jobs in insurance, vehicle maintenance, driver training, emergency services, auto dealers, car parts specialists,  main roads, sign makers to name just a few.

Councils loss of parking revenue. Most councils have a reliance on the huge parking fees and fines gathered today. If ownership decreases and Uber style cars become the norm then the level of parking we have now will not be required in central business areas.

This can result in the recovery of land currently used for parking for other purposes.

So where are we now?

Probably a lot further along that most people think. Virtually all major manufacturers expect to have fully autonomous cars on the road by 2020.

Many of them are very close to that now.

Toyota                                                                        Mercedes 

 

Volvo                                                                          Tesla

 

     
 Ford                                                                           Hyundai 
  

 

Mitsubishi                                                                  BMW

 

Nissan                                                                        Volkswagen

 

                    


GM                                                                             Honda                

   

As you can see from the manufacturers above, there is a wide difference between the companies on the sophistication of their technologies with some so far advanced that they are on the road now and others at an early point of development.

But no matter where they're at now, the race is most definitely on.
                         

               

Ok, so it all looks rosy and solves all the problems of the world, Yes?

No. It will solve a lot of issues but getting there from where we are now will be a long and difficult transition and will involve governments, Police, Main Roads, unions, pressure groups, businesses and lots and lots of lawyers.

What I will focus on in future blogs is the current state of play, what the challenges are in getting there and most importantly the very wide ranging social implications of this disruptive technology.

Please stay tuned