Part 43 - Thus Spoke Zarathustra

The new year looks like it could be the time of the big step forward in the world of autonomous vehicles.

General Motors lat week petition the US government to allow them to build and use automated vehicles on the road without a steering wheel or pedals with the aim of mass producing these in 2019.

Lets just sit back and think about that for a minute as the concept is staggering.

2019 could see totally autonomous mass produced vehicles on the road.

Read that line again.

2019 could see totally autonomous mass produced vehicles on the road.

This gets rid of one of the worst aspects of the current technology where level 3 automation requires a driver to take over at a moments notice when it can't handle something.

That's all well and good if the driver is wide awake and alert and watching the road but what happens when the driver relies on this because it works so well for long periods of time - then suddenly it doesn't.

Tesla is well aware of that with its famous collision with a truck at high speed with the driver reportedly using the vehicle as fully autonomous.

GM has long stated that it wants to go directly to level 4 automation where the car can take action on its own when in uncertain circumstances such as slowing down or pulling over therefore avoiding this potential lethal situation with level 3 control.

So lets see where this going because it means that driverless cars (in every aspect of the name ) could be on the road far sooner than currently expected.

Another aspect of that is the thinking that automation needs a lot more testing before releasing into the real world but drivers are so bad (and I count myself in that if I am being honest) that even non perfect automation will produce less deaths that human drivers so the sooner the better.

 Seeing automated vehicles on the road is a rarity in most place but in Phoenix Arizona it is a common sight. Primarily because of the physical characteristics of the place where it is hot and dry most of the time with no snow, little rain and wide pot hole free roads which makes it ideal for testing in near perfect conditions but not so well if you want to sort out problems as they arise but you can't have everything.

Meanwhile, back in my world I am rapidly moving on with 3D printing as in my previous blog.
I build the Digital sundial which ended up a 40 hour print and I hoped that the power held up as there was a storm coming in and I was terrified of a power failure as the printer can't recover from a power loss. Fortunately it didn't happen and I had a successful run and the digital sundial works very well.

Buoyed by this success I embarked on the next big print and started on the hand for my new robot arm. This was a 15 hour print and ran very smoothly - for 14 and a 1/2 hours.

They were right, it doesn't recover from a power fail, even a 2 second flicker.

AAAAAARRRGH

My 3D printer now has a UPS connected to it.....

Who said you don't learn from experience!

This coming weekend I will reprint it and start to construct the hand and arm.
I have now received the parts I was waiting for and should get the dancing robot (Otto) working as well.

Something to look forward too and I will will post developments as they occur.

Cheers

Part 42 - It's life Jim but not as we know it.

2018 has  arrived.

Happy new year and all that.

To me these date numbers are well into science fiction territory as I never actually expected to get to this stage but that's another story.

Now that I'm here I am so grateful as we are (as I have said so many times before) on this massive cusp of change and I love change.

Now that the new year is here it brings on the first of the new season motor shows and the Singapore show is currently open and announcements are trickling out as it goes on.

Audi has announced the first full production car with the Audi 8 L (dubbed the AI) that has level 3 automation.
Level 3 automation is basically full automation (but not fully functional for all situations) and requires a driver to take control when it finds a situation it can't handle.

This is a  great leap forward but brings back the problem of complacency.

A driver who uses this can become so used to it in automated mode that they forget that the car can't yet do it all yet and they aren't prepared to take control fast enough in an emergency situation.

As happened with Tesla it is likely that deaths will occur, just because people are people.

Level 4 hopefully is not far away where the car can pull over and stop when no human intervention occurs when requested.

Having said all that this is pretty remarkable that that level of sophistication is now available in a production vehicles.

Meanwhile Nividia has announced a new "supercomputer on a chip" which they hope will become the standard for automated vehicles.

"Nvidia says its invention of “the world’s first autonomous machine processor” is in the final stages of development and will be production ready by the end of the year."

The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is becoming more automated car these days and there is an interesting article here about cars of the future.

Meanwhile, on a more personal level I am progressing in my robotics development in leaps and bounds since the acquisition of a 3D printer. To say it has changed my life would be an understatement and my wife may (is) regretting buying this for me.

To give you an example I was pretty happy with my development of a robotic arm which I designed and built parts for using my home made CNC machine.

But it has been rapidly superceded with this:

Which rapidly became this:

Now the bug has bitten and I have embarked on this incredible thing.

What really blows me away is the fact that I can build this at home at an affordable price thanks to ordering parts from China and building the plastics on my own 3D printer.

Since Christmas (given that its January the 12th now) I am building things that I had hoped to have the capability of doing maybe five years down the track.

Isn't technology great?

Having said that and being enthused about all things tech I will guarantee that some people will look at the above video and think fearful thoughts about this level of robotics.

Bear in mind that a car, TV or washing machine is just that, a machine.
Just because it looks vaguely like a human does mean that it has human characteristics, it's still a machine.

AI now is a totally different ball game as you can let it make its own decisions based on what it has learned and that's a game changer in anyone's book and a subject for another discussion.

Today is Friday. (TGIF)

Tonight I am going to print a 3D sundial just because I can.

This is an extreme example of either the pinnacle of technology or an example of someone with far too much time on their hands, you choose but it really is super cool.

'Till next time.

Part 41 - On the road again.

I am finding it increasingly difficult to find things to write about autonomous vehicles.
It is now sort of sneaking up on us without the big fanfare we used to have and will slowly pervade every corner of our society.

When you boil it down however it all comes back to computers and these days more specifically, robotics.

A robot can be defined as "a machine capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically, especially one programmable by a computer."

So then you have a very wide range of devices that can be considered robots ranging from a washing machine that goes through a whole cycle of operations to an automated vehicle or robotic receptionist.

All of these are in use today.

As I have said before, sometimes technology just blows me way.

I am sitting in my study now at 10:55 am, December 30th 2017.

On my left is my new 3D printer working away on parts for a robot hand that I am building as the first part of a humanoid robot.

To my right I have a computer rebuilding its operating system as an upgrade to my home made CNC machine.  

I am typing this on a laptop and my wife is in another room with her laptop connected to her Silhouette cutter which is basically a CNC machine with a blade for cutting paper and card.
Her hobby is card making.

All the while we are listening to Spotify which is streaming directly from the stereo.

In TV land we use Netfix, Iview or  or watch TV programs that may or may not have been downloaded by someone else.

Nerds Much?

We are both in our mid sixties (25 in my head but the mirror lies) and I have worked in technology all of my working life even running my own IT support company for several years.
I have worked in telephony, television and computer support including mainframes.

So I suppose I have to admit to being a nerd.

But damn, it's so interesting and at the cusp of change that makes every new day exciting.

All I need now is a new drug that can make me physically young again and I can start a new career.

Meanwhile I will carry on using other peoples work to build things of interest as I don't have the time to develop my own as much as I would like to.

Things I have made with the new printer since Christmas.

Still waiting for some electronics but the body is looking good (Just like me really). 

Hard to believe that it's nearly 2018, science fiction territory.

Hopefully there may even be a 2019 if Trump keeps his tiny hands off the launch button.

Here's hoping and have a great new year!

Part 40 Let there be light.

7th November 2017 remember this date because that's when it actually became real.

This is where the rubber really hit the road.

At a web summit in Lisbon Waymo chief executive John Krafcik announced  that some of its fleet in Phoenix Arizona will operate in fully autonomous mode without a driver.

"Starting now, Waymo's fully self-driving vehicles are test-driving on public roads without anyone in the driver's seat."

Waymo vehicles have logged more than 3.5 million miles of autonomous driving on US roads, according to the company.

Waymo employees will be the first to test the fully automated rides.

The company plans to eventually launch a driverless on-demand ride service, potentially eliminating the need for car ownership in the long term.

"Over the next few months, we'll be inviting members of the public to take trips in our fully self-driving vehicles," Waymo said.

The full story is here:

And so it begins...

Interesting research by Rand corporation flags changes in the way people should be looking at automated vehicle introduction.

The normal and very public view is that the technology is far from perfect and needs years of testing before peoples lives are put at risk.

Rand turns that around completely. 
They argue that 37,000 people die on the road in the US each year, mostly through human error.
The researchers found that introducing autonomous vehicles when they are just better than human drivers—as opposed to nearly perfect—could save hundreds of thousands of lives over 30 years.

If we wait for perfect the road toll will continue to climb.

The interesting full story is here:

As I am writing this over a period of time and as the whim takes me, then new news breaks.

Today Uber announced that it wants to buy 24,000 autonomous vehicles from Volvo for delivery between 2019 and 2021. 

Where they will be used and if they have the legislation in place to make this work at the time will make this interesting.

If it does work within that time frame then the world will be in for a major shakeup that will make the evolution of the Internet look like childs play.

Let the games begin.

Part 39 And now for something completely different!

As much as I try to hide it, I have to face up to the fact that I'm getting old.

When I was  kid we didn't have TV, a car or a telephone.
We used to listen to radio serials or tune in short wave to hear foreign exotic languages.

World war two was still a strong memory for most adults and they had the scars to prove it.

When I was born the Korean war was in full swing and communism was considered to be the scourge of the world that threatened all peace loving nations.

The Soviet Union was a superpower and the only thing holding them back was the US and it's western allies and the threat of nuclear war.

My, how things have changed.

Today I play with robotics, type this on my computer or tablet and scan news on my phone that goes everywhere with me in my pocket. I stream TV programs for entertainment and watch live news from around the world whenever I want.
I sit in front of a computer for a living (considering I only use two fingers I manage to type rather well) and use spreadsheets, word processing and email all the time.

The Soviet Union is no more, Communism is on the decline and the greatest threat to the world is either the US president or the leader of North Korea... choose your own as they're basically interchangeable anyway.

Racism and nationalism are on the rise worldwide and the world is starting once again to become isolationist and pulling back from globalism.

Not necessarily a good thing but a function of the normal human progression. What happens is the world swings in one direction, goes too far, over corrects and then starts to swing back. Rinse and repeat so we get this cycle over time for an issue until it levels out and reaches a point of acceptance.




So, Where am I going with this?

A very good question!

My belief is that no matter what happens technology marches on despite the best efforts of people trying to hold it back.
Even wars, although initially tend to drag everything down through destruction and death, eventually generate a whole new raft of technologies in an attempt to gain the upper hand.

Radar, now used all over the world, is a good example and of course computers (Bombe) designed to crack the German Enigma codes directly led to the automation and computing technology we have now and use every day.

Computing has long become a mainstay in business and robotics is now taking over huge swathes of industry to increase production and reduce costs.

Automated vehicles are coming quickly and will soon be an accepted part of society as are automated shipping and air taxis.

Humanoid robots are now in many hotels and can be seen all over the world and are becoming more refined and lifelike at an accelerating rate.

The video above shows how lifelike these robots can look now.

Try these about Sophia.

Sophia addressing the U.N.

Now that we can see how human these robots look and act, people are starting to get creative.

Companies are combining the existing silicone sex doll industry with robotics and creating a whole raft of moral and social issues along the way.

Warning, links lead to sites that may offend some readers.

Robotic sex dolls are now available.

Sound like something out of science fiction? Well it is and it isn't.

Very lifelike (static) sex dolls have been around now for about 20 years in the west with Japan having had them for longer, initially for disabled people who had no alternative and later for men who are too shy to meet women or simple want their relationship purely on their own terms.

So the logical (but maybe not desirable) development of this is for the two technologies to combine to create extremely lifelike robotic sex dolls.

Again, science fiction?

Not so much, it's happening now.

 The technology is there and will improve, if that's the right word in this context, over time.

As with any technology, as I have said ad nauseum, once it's out there it's not going away any time soon.

So we are left with a huge moral dilemma that will have to be addressed in the not too distant future.

For example lifelike robotic sex dolls that look like children has chilling implications as well as people wanting to act out their basest fantasies doesn't bear to think about.

On the plus side it may be a boon for disabled people and those with severe social disabilities that won't ever get to have a life partner.

So again the wheel turns and a new cycle starts.

One day when the dust settles we will again have a different world, very different to the one I was born into.

I think I might drag out my old Yo-Yo and not think about these things for a while.

Part 38 - Welcome to the World of Tomorrow

Most of my blog has been about autonomous vehicles with the odd rambling diversion into politics, and robotics and computing in general.

My background has been in electronics and that developed later into networking and computer operating systems.

In recent years I have worked more with people and their interactions with computing.

Which brings me to the big picture.

Where are we going?

It's pretty fair to say that computers are here to stay.

Automation is taking over more everyday task at an ever increasing rate and impinging more on our lives with each passing year.

How much we allow it to take over, to a certain extent is up to us.
Travelled on a bus or train lately? There is virtually no eye contact at all.
Being one of the few people without social media accounts I have time to look at people and all I see is a sea of heads all busy tweeting, reading or talking on their phones.

Walk along a footpath and you have to avoid the people texting while they walk.

So where will this go in the future?

I have seen Microsoft's Enhanced reality goggles where you can see the world your in but also see VR superimposed on it. Exciting stuff but scary at the same time.

I don't profess to know where it's going but like all other things there will be swings to and against change until society ends up with a compromise people can live with and then we have the new normal.

So, it's been a while since I wrote anything here as there hasn't been a lot of news.
Previously everyone wanted to get in on the hype and released press release after press release to get their name in the game. Now it's all about getting their heads down and push to market.

The next year will be very interesting!

Some current news: Dubai, who seems to be leading in some areas of technology is currently testing several automated air taxis.

In keeping with their philosophy they are also testing the worlds first aerial police motorbike.

The US, while it's government appears be winding back the clock, some departments still seem to be based in reality and are putting rules to allow autonomous cars on the road without drivers or even steering wheels or pedals for that matter.

That's it for the moment but I hope to re-engage with more interesting update shortly.

Part 37 - Feedback and the art of the feel.

I haven't posted anything for a while, mainly because there hasn't been a lot of newsworthy stuff happening in the autonomous arena.

So I am going to do something a little different - sort of.

Feedback may not be considered to be something that people pay a lot of attention to but it is critical to virtually everything.
Consider autonomous cars. Without feedback you could program a car to go from A to B easily and set it off but it would never get there and probably kill anything that got in its way.

It relies on sensors to provide feedback in the form of data that tells it what to avoid. Without that it is straight programming, IE go straight 100 metres turn right 90 degrees go straight 100 metres etc. This would be OK in a closed controlled environment but not on a public road where circumstances change from second to second.

A computer arm in a factory needs feedback even if it does repetitive tasks. Consider if something that it needs to pick up is off centre. The arm could come to pick it up, have the edge of its gripper over the top rather than at the side of the object, and when it moves down to grip it actually applies force to the top. this could result in damage to the arm or the goods.

Feedback can take many different forms, for location in determining where something is, as well as feedback on the pressure applied to an object.
Consider when you pick up a mug of coffee, the grip force is very different to what is required to pick up a crystal wine glass. Therefore there has to be sensing of location in relation to the object as well as identification of the object to determine the appropriate force of grip.

In life we use the same criteria.

When faced with a situation we have to input data to determine a course of action. That may require a number of people with different skills and experience to determine the correct approach.

But what happens when the leader is very much his own man and refuses to involves others because of an unshakable belief in their own abilities despite constant feedback to the contrary?
Like a robot that decides the crystal wine glass is a coffee mug despite the evidence and treats it accordingly.
At what point do you decide to shut it down?

 Hopefully before its actions causes irreparable damage.


As I have said before, repeatedly, we are on the cusp of change in so many different areas, all primarily due to the development of computing.

The fact that computers can do so much more now and so much faster has spread the effects further afield.

Pure research now has advanced as we can run many "what if "scenarios and get results back in a decent time frame.

Automation is now reaching into all areas including medicine.

A robotic surgeon has now reduced the time taken for opening the cranium for surgery from 2 hours to about 2.5 minutes.

This automated process means that the patient is under for far less time and the human error element is removed.

Even in sport you can't get away from Technology.
Being an Australian I love the America's Cup. Apart from the technology, three of the yachts have Aussie skippers and many crew members are ours a well.

I live in Perth where the cup was held back in 1988 and was there to watch it.
It has come a long way since these boats used to sail along at a snail pace and everything was manually controlled.

Now it's foiling catamarans with wings that fly (literally) through the water at multiples of the wind speed, hitting up to 100K per hour.

One yacht has even reached  130 Kph

Meanwhile as mentioned before, what happens when all this automation increases to the point where there are few jobs?

Unemployed people don't have the money to be consumers so who will buy the cheaper faster produced items?

One solution that has been getting a lot of attention and should be looked at professionally is a universal basic wage.

Politicians are still 20th century thinking that we can bring back the jobs from Asia and rebuild our industries to have jobs so everyone can have a unicorn in their own yard.

These jobs aren't in Asia anymore, they are at home and being automated to compete with Asia.
They are not coming back people, not ever.

The feedback on jobs is not getting through to politicians, they have their own agenda and don't want feedback that contradicts that.

We do need to seriously look at alternatives, even if it turns out they don't work the research could point to another direction.
At least we have to be looking at options even if the alternatives don't jibe with the politicians aims.

Feedback is essential to any process, but to work it has to be accepted.

Ignore it and we end up with shards of glass not wine.