Part 33 - Tempus Fugit

Technology is not something new, it's not a product of the modern age, it is something that has been part of human history since history began.

Automation is a logical progression, where technology makes life easier why not use it more efficiently to take the workload off people and make their time usage more efficient?

Man has always striven to develop new technologies and adapt it to our advantage.

We started with fire by adapted that from nature so we could cook, keep warm and have light to see by at night. From that point on, man started to make things that made life easier for them, like tools.

One of the major inventions that had a huge impact on the development of society was the wheel. This revolutionised the transport of goods and allowed more people to travel in groups and move bigger loads with far less effort.

The printing press made mass produced printing available for the first time and allowed society to make it's first steps away from the church as a source of all knowledge. The church pretty much had a monopoly on literature and guarded it jealously so they could control what was disseminated to the masses. Once anyone could print their own literature that became a threat to the church.
This bought up a continuing battle that still rages when new technologies threaten the established order. The church, through their government control attempted to shut it down by introducing a printers guild, where anyone who wanted to print had to obtain a copy right from the guild.
This is where the modern copyright comes from and I will touch on that again later.

With the advent of steam engines the world really took off and the industrial revolution changed manufacturing, agriculture and transport forver. This was a major turning point in automating labour intensive industries into machine driven industry.

People became feeders of the machines and factory output increased dramatically with a smaller labour force and as people had to work to survive, they had to work in appalling conditions for low pay as they could be easily replaced.

The telegraph, then the telephone followed closely by radio changed the way the world communicated and fast global communication was born.

Electricity and electronics increased the spread of technology and allowed it to move into wider business use and into the home. Everyone in the developed world could have a washing machine, electric cooker and radio.

For the first time you could have the news at home, soon after it happened as it was telegraphed around the world in a matter of hours.

With the advent of the first computers by the British to crack German codes in World War 2, the world stood on the brink of a huge business transformation.

When the personal computer came out in the eighties the world well and truly fell over the brink and the whole world changed again.

Accountants could do forward projections via spreadsheets in hours rather than days and they literally threw money at the computer companies. Again staff numbers dropped and productivity increased.

We all know how the office environment transformed with these new devices but then the Internet hit and stood the world on its head again.

That transformed the business model more than the advent of the computer had.

In the interim the Asian region moved massively into the 20th century and as their people became more affluent the consumer base grew and they moved into larger scale manufacturing.
With a cheap labour force they expanded their markets to the world and the west, faced with increasing labour costs moved many jobs to Asia.
Many western companies also saw this as a bad thing and decided to automate to cut costs and increase manufacturing capability as well as keeping the industry in their own countries.

You now have the situation, particularly in the US where manufacturing is the largest export sector and to keep competitive is increasing their automation and shedding even more jobs. '

 Asia saw this happening and is now automating as well to increase productivity and cut jobs to compete with the rise of western technology.

As computers grow and computing power increases dramatically with every new generation the scope of automation increases exponentially. You now have computers in nearly everything from your fridge to the toaster to the phone in your pocket.

The greater the computing power, the more ways we have to use it.

Autonomous vehicles are now a reality and it's only a matter of when, not if, they become widely available.

This level of automation sees a new generation of jobs to be shed as there will be very few truck drivers, delivery people, taxi drivers and anyone else involved in supporting these in the not too distant future.

Quite a few factual type reporting articles (sports in particular) are being written by computer so there are journalism entry level jobs there disappearing as well.

Medical technology is now high tech with many machines that go ping!

Seriously though many more patients can be monitored from a central location without having to do frequent rounds to check, again reducing staffing levels. They can automatically release medication without intervention and adjust the levels based on electronic monitoring.

Autonomous vehicles will stand the world on its head yet again and the social implications are huge as I have discussed before.

Shipping in major ports is now virtually automated across the globe.

Even the flying car is back on the radar (pardon the pun).

Technology is happening at an ever increasing rate and as with any technology there are always people for whatever reason always want to oppose it.

This can be for many reasons including not wanting to redefine the business model which invariable introduces cost and loss of profit due to market erosion. The music publishing industry is a classic example of that.

Movie and television companies still cling to regional copyright in the face of world wide simple to use pirate techniques that bypass these controls.

Most people actually want to pay for their content but if they can't get it at a reasonable price they will find other ways of getting it.
Ask many Netflix subscribers who previous had access to Netflix content from around the globe. Now that they can't get it anymore, many have gone back to downloading the same content.

Companies are automating their factories to compete with cheap Asian goods, robots are moving into home and retail, and online shopping is becoming the norm.

Taxi drivers are protesting world wide over Uber and related services.

In the next year or so Uber and truck drivers will be protesting automated vehicles.

The expression used to be that the only certainty in life is death and taxes.
In the modern age that has become death, taxes and change.

Once it's out there the technology is not going away.
Unfortunately there is only one option, adapt or die!

I have always been a supporter of technology but we are now at such an advanced stage of development that the people aspect needs to become a major part of the discussion.

As people are displaced by technology their income, and by extension, their purchasing power reduces.

I have reduced this to a couple of very simplistic equations:

Higher automation = higher output and lower employment levels
Lower employment = smaller consumer base
Smaller consumer base = lower sales,
Reduce prices = increase sales
Reduce cost = higher automation
 rinse and repeat

It's not really rocket science but with many governments having the emphasis on developing new jobs  then it's not being considered as an issue.

Once you look at industry today and the levels of automation then you will see that these jobs are not coming back... Not ever.
 
So despite the public rhetoric surround trade deals employment and globalisation, we really need to start a new conversation.

Unfortunately I see some of the current world leaders following an alternative reality.

Part 32 - And the beat goes on

It seems every time there's a new news report (if you ignore Trump) it's about some new unrelated company moving into the autonomous vehicle (AV) market.

Google, Apple and now even Panasonic has a concept vehicle.

Automation in society today, as we all know, goes well beyond AV's.
Every part of our life is affected by automation and we all have pervasive technology in our homes.
We all have smartphones, smart TV's streaming video and music and who doesn't have the Internet.

Very few people today don't do at least some of their shopping online. Could you imagine going back to paying your bills in person or by cheque?

As time goes on this automation will increase dramatically and this uptake and acceptance into our lives is acceleration at an exponential rate.

This may be what it looks like not too far into the future.

Whether you like it or not it is coming.

Robotics is advancing at a huge rate and rapidly becoming normal within our homes.

AI research is advancing so fast it is now into toys.

It's already in business. This is an automated hotel in Japan.

It's not going away any time soon so good luck to bringing back jobs D.T.

Glad to be an Australian.

Part 31 - The age of Reason

Thomas Paine once said - "The real man smiles in trouble, gathers strength from distress, and grows brave by reflection".

In an age where automation is quickly becoming the norm we have to learn from the changes in our society and adapt accordingly. 

In a new world where we want everything and we want it now we no longer have the luxury of waiting. When something new that everyone wants becomes available we don't want to wait for it, we just want it.

To give you an example of how time frames are becoming compressed have a look at the social phenomenon of Susan Boyle. 

In 2009 she appeared on the popular television show Britain's Got Talent (BGT) and instantly became a world wide household name. At that time the Internet had just becoming the huge behemoth it is now and the BGT video became one of the most viewed videos throughout the world.

Her popularity was immense and I happened to be fortunate enough to be in the UK when the finals were held and saw the incredible publicity and euphoria that it created as it happened.

On the downside, at that point the music industry was still in denial of the Internet and was clinging ferociously to its old distribution model.

With the Internet giving free publicity world wide to Susan Boyle, it took a full seven months for her music to be released for sale, and then it was only a CD with many tracks no one wanted. 

It did sell in the millions but imagine the sales today if it was released within a day of the free publicity via the Internet?

Prophetic interview with David Bowie who saw many things coming from the Internet that most people missed, way back in 1999.

The desire for things to happen fast and the need to get to market quickly has created a manufacturing conundrum.

There are a couple of options on how to achieve a quick move to market:
Outsource it to Asia where they have a huge and agile manufacturing industry, or do it domestically by automating the workforce. 

Given that Asia is now also automating their workforce it doesn't leave a lot of options.

With automated vehicles doing away with multitudes of jobs ranging from Taxi and truck drivers to panel beaters and road workers this also adds to the problem.

Now, given the computers are used to design the new products and automation (domestic or foreign) is increasing used for the manufacturing it creates a major problem for the world.

The business owners can see huge long term savings from automation by downsizing staff and new products can be turned out much faster at lower cost.

The logical progression here is that all industries will be forced to head down that path eventually or die for the simple reason, as I've said before (ad-nauseum) that once the technology is out there it won't go away. 
You can only ignore or oppose technological change for a certain amount of time before you just start to look silly.

As automation increases what will happen to the market?

A mass production manufacturing industry needs mass consumers.
If the consumers are increasingly out of work, where is the market?  

Now I am the first to admit that I am not an economist, manufacturer or social engineer, but even I can see this as a problem.

So how do you turn your unemployed into consumers?

This is going to be a major issue as time goes on.

You could take the head in the sand attitude and follow Trumps view. 
This would bring manufacturing back to your own country by government protectionism and create jobs but at most, this will be unsustainable and expensive - unless you automate, which then doesn't bring jobs.

So, given that the rest of the world will continue to embrace globalism and automation at an ever increasing pace, then as a global society (sans U.S.) we need to look at the people who don't have technical skills or the ability to improve themselves by themselves.

One such solution that's been kicked around for quite some time now is the Guaranteed Basic Income. This is a situation where the government pays you a basic wage, whether you work or not.

In one stroke you do away with unemployment benefits (food stamps in countries that have them) and other social systems. There is no need for any control as everyone is entitled to the income.

Industry pays for it through taxation.

Communism? Not really. It's actually a logical extension of Capitalism.

Automation is a situation that industry is creating that carries the seed of it's own destruction by creating massive unemployment and therefore removing it's own market.

How do you keep consumers?

The Guaranteed Basic Income is not a new idea. Nixon (of all people) actually floated this and had a test run that showed it to be viable. It did not discourage people from working, did not :"break the bank" and was a failure only for political reasons.

This article  documents the trial and shows the huge results achieved from the testing of the theory but was shot down by harking back to an old English suggestion 150 years before of doing something similar. This English example was heavily based on the assumption of the "lazy poor" where it was assumed if you got paid you wouldn't want to work.  

Nixon's test basically disproved that but he chose to put politics before people as so often happens and it morphed into something else.

Now this is all very radical in today's society but given that automation will cost jobs there has to be some way of ensuring that we have consumers to buy the products that automation can provide.

That may be enough to have this looked at in a more serious light now that something actually will be needed as high volume permanent unemployment is no longer just theory.

This concept is, logically enough, gaining traction in the Nordic countries.

Maybe we are approaching the age of reason at last. 
Or maybe not, lets just wait for the official tweet. 


P.S. It is now official as of 20/1/2017, the whole world has the DT's 

noun, Pathology.

1.

a withdrawal syndrome occurring in persons who have developedphysiological dependence on alcohol, characterized by tremor, visualhallucinations, and autonomic instability.

Abbreviation: d.t.

Also called the d.t.'s.

Part 30 - All good things come to he who waits.

Hi all,
I did promise that I was going to have my first ride on the Navya/RAC Intellibus and do a story on it but alas, it was not to be.

There are some issues with the bus. These appear to be mechanical, not related to the actual tech of the machine but probably more to the harsh conditions to be found here.

In recent days we have had a number of hot days (37 C or higher (100 F + in old tech)) which have had an effect on the air conditioning and the doors of the bus designed in the much cooler European climate. I believe our lack of infrastructure with Mobile (cell) signal inadequacy has an impact as well.

My understanding is that support is on the way and local training will also occur to enable these issues to be resolved locally in the future.

As with any new technology there are always teething troubles and we learn from them and passenger safety is the primary concern, hence the delays.

Hopefully I will get to to see it soon.

The Detroit Motor show 2017 is underway and all the new shiny metal is on display.
Of course tech is highlighted any time you are talking cars these days.

The top ten tech cars of the show are here.

Most of these, and we are talking cars you and I can afford, not top of the line machines, have incorporated a lot of driver assist features including adaptive cruise control, lane departure assist, pedestrian detection and pre-collision detection. That last one boggles the imagination, does it take action or just give time for you to say "oh S..."?

Being a Toyota enthusiast, I know not the most glamorous machines, I find the new Camry looks great.
In Australia the six cylinder version comes out as a separate model called the Aurion (which I drive) and love and it will be interesting to see what the new Aurion looks like when it arrives here.

So the new features will soon be standard on all models and people will start to see the benefits of the car assuming some control and warning capability, which will go a long way in driving acceptance of the tech.

It seems the higher end machines are not at the Detroit show and we will have to wait for the New York and other shows before we see the latest tech.

Concept cars appeared, as they do at these shows and except for the first one are generally electric and autonomous.

Not a lot happening at the moment so ... stay tuned.

Part 29 - It's a new world, its a new day - Feeling good

The turn of a new year.
With the advent of a new year comes new things, promises and challenges.
This year, more than ever I am glad I live in Australia.

I think the challenges we face pale in comparison to many other countries and for that I am grateful.

Last week saw CES in Las Vegas happening with quite a bit of emphasis on Autonomous Vehicles.

Ford made a major announcement that its Autonomous Vehicle will be released for on road use for Uber type services in 2021 (less than 4 years from the time of writing) and available in showrooms for public purchase by 2025.
The major difference here is that it won't have steering wheel or pedals for the taxi fleet. It is undecided at this point whether the private owner model will or won't have them.

 They are looking to have 30 vehicles (with safety drivers) on the road shortly and 90 by the end of this year.

This of course is very dependent on how the new US President reacts to computers taking over the current jobs of drivers in the Taxi/Uber industry.

This creates a major conundrum and a huge headache for someone who wants to keep jobs.
The question is, do you move to Automated Vehicles and keep the tech industry at the leading edge or keep the manual jobs and let China and others take the lead in technology which will probably cost the US economy far more in the longer term?

One of the challenges I alluded to earlier and the tip of the iceberg when it comes to automation.

So, what else has come out of CES?

Chrysler has announced a Concept AV called the Portal.
This doesn't physically exist but has a great CGI animation.

According to the blurb it is designed "by millennials for millennials".

The new startup Faraday Future’s FF 91 is supposedly in production soon and has several test vehicles.

Toyota has a concept called the, oddly enough, Concept - i.

 Apart from the concepts, it appears the least reported but most significant things top affect AV's is the underlying technology.

Most of the developers were in the car parks showing off their new tech but this stuff doesn't have the glamour and therefore doesn't rate as highly in the news reports but is the structure that will make or break acceptance of the technology.

Can't wait for the day when a robot at CES steals an autonomous car, hacks it and does burnouts in the carpark. 

On another note, I have mentioned that Navya along with the RAC and the State Government here in Perth Western Australia is trialing an autonomous bus which they refer to as the Intellibus and is taking passengers around South Perth.

I am fortunate enough to have a seat on a test run next week and will record this and will do a blog on the experience.

Something to look forward to for me at least, you, maybe not so much.

Part 28 - Brave new world

Last week I went to Crown Casino in Perth for lunch, not because I am a gambler, but because they have cheap lunch deals.
However we dipped out as that was only Monday to Thursday and we chose to go on Friday so I was right on form as usual, but that's another story.

While I was waiting for my colleagues to pay for lunch ( I had already paid for mine in case you were wondering) I just stood there and looked around at this huge gaming area with flashing lights, bells and music.
One thing struck me immediately, apart from the lack of smiles on peoples faces, and that was the lack of staff.

Not that I'm saying that there aren't enough staff, just that everything that can be, is automated.

All the pokies are computerised, the money is handled by the machine, or added to a card by a machine with no human intervention. Many of the people in front of the machines look like machines as well with blank stares and push the button, wait, stare, push the button. Repeat.

There is even an automated roulette type wheel and the players have linked screens where they place their bets. The machine voice says no more bets then the wheel begins to spin all on its own, stops and pays out to the screen of anyone lucky enough to win.

Driving back from there I notice a new fixed speed camera on the side of the road. No longer police standing there with a radar but fixed cameras at intersections at regular intervals. The first thing you know these days when you've done something wrong is when you get the bill in the mail.

I used to be a great supporter of speed camera, but now that there are so many of them it's far easy to be penalised when you do make a legitimate mistake. We are human and if you try really hard to do the right thing you still make the odd mistake, and if there is  camera there when you do, it's another fine. I try not to make mistakes, but I am Human, no matter how much my wife begs to differ.
Roll on automated vehicles.

In the same vein this whole concept is to be extended, where the speed camera comes to you with an automated police motorcycle cruising the streets looking for offenders and issuing on the spot fines (literally) via apps or email.

At what point do we reach the limits of human concentration? We all know that there are very bad drivers out there that shouldn't be allowed on the road but at what point does an average person start to lose their license because they physically and mentally can't keep up the concentration 100% of the time. I know we should but I also know that we can't.

This could actually become a selling point when autonomous vehicles hit big time, and can also be used by government as a migration tool, but in the interim it is going to cause pain.

Add to that the new Crusin' parking inspectors that just drive by and the computer records the number plates of all vehicles it passes and ties it to a GPS system. This is recorded and on the next pass if the car is till there and has exceeded its limit an automated fine is produced.

So, whats the point of, well, pointing out all of the automation?

Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of it is great, but we do have the risk of people becoming more insular, with social interaction being reduced to the point that you can avoid human contact virtually altogether.
Virtual reality will make that even more of an issue.

On another note, Uber has started running autonomous cars in San Francisco.
Not everyone is happy.

Uber has not applied for a license and it looks like this may come to trading blows in court.

Merry Christmas all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Part 27 - Actually waking up in the morning means the day's not a complete loss.

It's been a while since I made a blog entry, not because I didn't want to, but because there hasn't been a lot of news.

Most manufacturers have made their announcements, published their road maps and now have gone quiet while getting on with the job of making it work.

The major hurdle these days seems to be government dragging heir feet and not addressing the issues that will have a dramatic effect on society.

I wrote an open letter to that effect and have held off publishing it as I have sent requests to both state and Federal (Australian) governments requesting information of what they are intending to do.

After a month I have had no response.

However, as is the way of life when you take a stand, something comes long to make you look faintly ridiculous, or prophetic, depending on your outlook. I'll go with prophetic.

The (Australian) National Transport Commission has been in place since 2003 and has had a remit to look at transport across the country. But as time goes on, things change.
Recently their focus has been updated. and this is a quote from their website.

Automated vehicles offer the possibility of fundamentally changing transport and society by improving road safety, freight productivity and by reducing road congestion.
However, current regulations do not adequately support automated road vehicles. In November 2016, Australian transports ministers agreed to a phased reform program so that conditionally automated vehicles can operate safely and legally on our roads before 2020, and highly and fully automated vehicles from 2020.
To provide certainty on the use of existing technology, transport ministers reaffirmed the existing policy position that the human driver remains in full legal control of a vehicle that is partially or conditionally automated, unless or until a new position is developed and agreed. These recommendations and policy positions are set out in the NTC policy paper – Regulatory reforms for automated road vehicles.

The policy paper starts off with a realistic statement that gives me hope that this is a step in the right direction.

However, current regulations do not adequately support automated road vehicles and there is uncertainty about how and when current polices and regulations will be adapted. There is also a risk that, without a national and coordinated response to automated vehicle reform, Australia’s complex regulatory framework will result in inconsistent regulation of automated vehicles across states and territories. In this policy paper, the National Transport Commission (NTC) recommends that the Commonwealth and state and territory governments support on-road trials, remove unnecessary legal barriers, and provide for the safe operation of automated vehicles. 

So it seems, I am pleased to say, that I have been pre-empted in trying to get governments involved.
As this technology will be appearing on the road within the next few years it needs to be addressed urgently and this is a good start with a National focus.

Apple has finally announced their intention of development in the field of autonomous vehicles with a letter to the (US) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) .

Although apple does refer to the sharing of crash data between manufacturers, that does seem to be at odds with their usual closed eco-system. Hopefully they will help with standardisation not proprietary systems.

In the US it's anyones guess what will happen once Trump gets into the White House.
His opposition to automation stealing jobs doesn't bode well for automated vehicles as they will replace many driving jobs.
If that's the case then the US may well slip behind the rest of the world in leading edge technologies, ironically leaving China to grab the lead.

There has been a huge amount of capital spent in developing technology to replace people and I don't think that's going to change back anytime soon. Amazons automated warehouse being a case in point.

No matter what your told, it's not just the US. Watch this video about automation in China.

This has to be the ultimate bridge builder to date. Note how fast it happens (even though the video has been sped up) and how few people are involved.

The clock doesn't get turned back just because you want to...