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Sunday 22 May 2016

Part 13 - To Infinity and Beyond

The new space race has begun, or more accurately the race to be the lead in driverless cars has begun.

The US and Russia began the space race when the US realised that Russia was so far ahead it would take a decade or more to catch up. In 1962 President Kennedy pushed through a program to land a man on the moon by the end of the decade.
 By 1969 that goal was achieved

Today we have a new space race.

Countries all around the world are waking up to the fact that autonomous vehicles are no longer in the realms of science fiction but are a reality and ready to move out into the real world now.

Even the queen is talking about it 
As a consequence many countries and manufacturers are waking up to the fact that they could be left behind and are suddenly making decisions about where they want to be in this emerging race.

As I have mentioned before, China is actively setting up vehicle to vehicle communication systems in existing vehicles to talk to autonomous cars. Baidu, Google of the orient, is heavily involved in this race as well and has signed an agreement with the City of Wuhu to build a dedicated zone for autonomous vehicles, the first in China.

Baidu is also partnering with BMW to build an autonomous car for the hugely lucrative Chinese market and is spending serious coin to get ahead of the game. As can be seen from the video below they are focusing on the technology and not worrying about the aesthetics yet but that will change...

Meanwhile, in Europe, VW Group’s head of digitisation Johann Jungwirth is talking up driverless cars happening quicker than most people believe “In a few years we’ll see vehicles without a steering wheel or pedals. This is not 2030. I’m talking about five years from now.
By 2025 it will be commonplace.” He then went on to say "We will be making a massive effort to promote piloted driving. We will be investing with the aim of bringing these technologies to market faster than the competition"

So yet another joins the race.

Several German auto makers held their shareholder meetings recently and all are discussing Teslas' lead in both electric and autonomous technology and their reaction to it.

BMW announced " In 2018, we will lunch a BMW i8 Roadster. This will be followed in 2021 by the BMW i Next, our new innovation driver, with autonomous driving, digital connectivity, intelligent lightweight design, a totally new interior and ultimately bringing the next generation of electro-mobility to the road."

Challenge accepted, race on.

Raj Nair, Ford Motor Co's head of design,engineering, research and product development believes that "it is credible that and autonomous vehicle at SA Level 4 [one step below full automation] will hit the market by 2020".

Toyota announced its financial results this month an also signaled a paradigm shift in thinking. After a mostly lukewarm approach to autonomous vehicles in the past it has now well and truly joined the race by announcing the Toyota research lab and that "Automated driving and robotics are challenges that affect us closely" Toyota last year put up a billion $US to expand its research into autonomous driving and has announced a collaboration with the University of Michigan, the third alliance with universities in the US to advance its autonomous driving efforts.

On your marks.

Volvo is to run self driving versions of family 4x4s on London roads next year as the motor industry trial of autonomous vehicles accelerates.
Volvos test is called Drive Me London and will see families driving autonomous vehicle on public roads as they have been doing in Gothenberg since 2014.

Get set.

Automated vehicles is not just about cars. Look how many trucks are on the road at any time around the world delivering everything we use on a daily basis from basic food to building materials and everything in between.

A new US startup called Otto Trucks is converting, for around $30K, any standard truck built since 2013 into an automated workhorse.These are now on the road in limited testing in states that allow it and will be a growth industry once trucking companies start to look at the costs involved with manually driven trucks involved in collisions through damage, loss of earnings and legal ability.

However, given unionisation and US laws this may well be something that develops faster in Asia due to social differences.


GO......

The development and implementation of this technology is most definitely accelerating, pardon the pun.

A lot of it is due to visibility.
Let me expand on that.

Remember when you wanted to buy a car? If you aren't fixated on a particular brand then you do research and eventually come up with a make and model that you are interested in.You start looking at them, test drive and so on.

At this point something strange happens, because everywhere you look now you see that model on the road, they are prolific and seem to be breeding at an exponential rate. You never realised how many there are out there.

What has happened here is focus.
You have become aware.

The same thing applies to autonomous vehicles.

I have been in a new job now for just over six months at the time of writing, and as you would expect,I am fairly passionate on the subject of autonomous vehicles and can't resist the impulse to start discussions on it at work......frequently.

The same situation has happened with my colleagues, everywhere they look now they see news on autonomous vehicles.  They hate me for it but hey, it happens.

So as more and more governments and companies become aware they start to think about the dollars and social benefits and talk about it and more news stories appear. The more the people see the more they think about it and the more focused they become.

The manufacturers and governments see the progress of other manufacturers and governments and want a piece of the action but to do that they need to get there first so they need more partnerships and alliances which generate more news stories and more awareness.

Rinse repeat.

So yes, the new space race is most definitely on - but this time it's not about outer space, its about evolution.

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