Part 1 In the beginning...

Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles.  That is a deceptively simple name for something that is going to create far more social disruption than the internet ever did and will change (and save) so many lives forever.

Most people think that self-driving vehicles are something a long way off in the in the future but the reality is that it’s already here and being used on our roads now.  Tesla has them on the road as does Mercedes new E-Class model . This is not totally tested full automation but very close to it and people are using it on city streets, not perhaps legally but it is happening.

Volvo, Toyota and Audi will have fully automated systems or very close to it, in their production vehicles in 2017. Most manufacturers are saying that fully automated vehicles will be on sale by 2020.  

Below is what manufacturers are aiming for and this is Mercedes functional prototype:

   

Of course all of this is using new technology not approved for use on the road, but that doesn’t mean that everyone listens.  If it’s available there will always be people who will use it regardless of the current law. Just because they shouldn’t do it doesn’t mean they won’t.

Which creates a huge problem for governments who haven’t started considering this yet, but more on that later.

About this blog.

This blog is designed to raised awareness and hopefully start discussions so that government and industry can begin to prepare for a technology that is going to create the biggest upheaval since the industrial revolution.

I do not profess to be an industry expert but I do have an extensive electronics and computing background and an intense interest in this exciting technology and I am researching and reading everything I can find on the subject to increase my knowledge. I also have an interest in sharing information, hence this blog.

I am based in Perth Western Australia, a state already implementing automated mining vehicles and I will be adding to this blog  regularly and using available literature  addressing many of the issue surrounding the inevitable implementation of this technology.

So, let’s begin at the beginning with a couple of things that I consider to be facts in the real world:

·         Once a technology is invented, if it has a use it will be used. If it is something people want then there is no way that it can be forced back into the box regardless of the implications. For example cassette tapes, Television  and the internet were all considered at one stage or another to be the end of a segment of the media entertainment industry and were actively opposed including trying to block the technology. After initial and prolonged opposition, industry (and everyone else) found that they had to adapt or die because the technology would not go away, so they reluctantly adapted. So now we have Itunes, Spotify, Netfix and others which now expand the industries previously considered doomed through technology.  

·         Jobs change over time as industries change and technologies not only create new jobs but make others redundant. For example, lamplighter jobs are in short supply today as are ice delivery men and nightsoil carters (look it up).

This has huge implications as virtually every sector of society will be challenged by autonomous vehicles. Just think about the role of police, traffic management, emergency services and the taxi industry when all vehicles are automated and you may begin to see the tip of the iceberg.

·         Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will happen, indeed is already in use and it’s not just confined to cars.

·         People will still die due to vehicles. This is an inescapable fact of life. No matter how good the automation, safety and technology, there will always be circumstances beyond our control including nature and stupidity. Someone dropping a brick from an overpass can still be fatal, but you would probably have a better chance of survival if the car detects it.

Back to the future.

What are autonomous vehicles?

Any type of vehicle can be autonomous, it’s not necessarily just confined to cars but is generally used in reference to cars as below.  

 Gartner defines  "An autonomous vehicle is one that can drive itself from  starting point to a predetermined destination in "autopilot " mode using various in vehicle technologies and sensors, including adaptive cruise control, active steering (steer by wire), anti-lock braking systems (brake by wire), GPS navigation technology, lasers and radar.

In Western Australia, mining giant Rio Tinto already use automation for iron ore trucks to move millions of tons a year around mine sites (200M tons already moved by June 2014). The ore is then transported over a virtually automated rail system. Rio’s aim is mining automation as per the Mine of the future.

An automated drone (Ehang 184) that can carry a passenger has been unveiled and could be in production in a few years but this carries more implications for safety than a car does.  

So where are we now and where will we be in a few years?

Well that depends on what level of automation, so let’s focus initially about where we are a few years down the track when full automation is with us and then we’ll work backward.

Consider the scenario where you no longer own one or two cars but call a car as a service when you want to go somewhere. When there is no driver, cheaper, lighter, safer mass produced cars are plentiful and anyone can safely use one at the touch of a button, then it will be far cheaper not to own a car at all. Today most privately cars are idle 95% of the time!

Traffic accidents will reduce significantly with full automation as the human factor is mostly removed so less safety features will need to be built into vehicles, creating lighter fuel efficient cars.

Traffic congestion will be a thing of the past, less car ownership, more shared vehicles giving less travel time, higher speed transit as well as more efficient road utilisation.

Road design will change as there will eventually be no need for traffic lights, roundabouts, overhead signs or indeed any signs.

Police can concentrate on law enforcement, no vehicle checks, drunk driving, road rage, high speed pursuits, traffic fine enforcement or speed cameras.

Hospital trauma sections will wind down as road trauma will reduce significantly. This will have a flow on effect to ambulance services and fire rescue.

Less pollution due to lighter more fuel efficient vehicles.

Government outlay and revenue will be severely impacted.

Vehicle insurance will change drastically due to lower claims for damage and loss of life.

Deliveries can be automated and happen around the clock without penalty rates, sickness or strikes.

On the downside the social upheaval will be immense.
Eventually most drivers will no longer be required creating a large shift in service industry jobs.

Jobs in insurance, vehicle maintenance, driver training, emergency services, auto dealers, car parts specialists,  main roads, sign makers to name just a few.

Councils loss of parking revenue. Most councils have a reliance on the huge parking fees and fines gathered today. If ownership decreases and Uber style cars become the norm then the level of parking we have now will not be required in central business areas.

This can result in the recovery of land currently used for parking for other purposes.

So where are we now?

Probably a lot further along that most people think. Virtually all major manufacturers expect to have fully autonomous cars on the road by 2020.

Many of them are very close to that now.

Toyota                                                                        Mercedes 

 

Volvo                                                                          Tesla

 

     
 Ford                                                                           Hyundai 
  

 

Mitsubishi                                                                  BMW

 

Nissan                                                                        Volkswagen

 

                    


GM                                                                             Honda                

   

As you can see from the manufacturers above, there is a wide difference between the companies on the sophistication of their technologies with some so far advanced that they are on the road now and others at an early point of development.

But no matter where they're at now, the race is most definitely on.
                         

               

Ok, so it all looks rosy and solves all the problems of the world, Yes?

No. It will solve a lot of issues but getting there from where we are now will be a long and difficult transition and will involve governments, Police, Main Roads, unions, pressure groups, businesses and lots and lots of lawyers.

What I will focus on in future blogs is the current state of play, what the challenges are in getting there and most importantly the very wide ranging social implications of this disruptive technology.

Please stay tuned