Part 20 - Australia, that big island down south, you know, the one with the Kangaroos.

It looks like we are finally getting there.
Parts of Australia are getting into the swing and realising that this is happening here as well.

Automated vehicles are coming down under.

The Australian Road Research Board Principal Behavioural Scientist Paul Roberts has stated that automotive technology is a lot more advanced than people realise and goes on to say that they will be here a lot more suddenly than people realise. The full story is here:
The Australian arm of Carnegie Mellon University in South Australia is planing to build a research centre in conjunction with General Motors Holden to make Australia an export hub for this technology so it's good news for all of us in the antipodes.

We might be a long way away from the rest of the world but we do have some very clever people, if you discount politicians.

I have been saying for some time that many people have under estimated the speed at which this will happen and when it does, it will appear to happen virtually overnight to those that aren't expecting it!

Coming back to a common theme of the past few weeks, we need to look a little deeper at the question of what makes a vehicle fully autonomous.

The normal answer to that is when you can hop in, tell it where to go and sit back and relax, read a book or watch a movie or even become involved in more intimate activities as some other pundits have suggested.

That is fully autonomous.

That then begs the next question. Is the tech behind it safe enough?

At this point there are no standards.

There are a number of ways of sensing what is around the vehicle, be it cameras, radar, lidar and cloud based GPS systems or a combination of all four.

Obviously the more systems you have the less chance of something being missed and when weather conditions are bad the use of all of these can make it as safe as houses to keep driving.

Therein lies the rub. If you base it on one system then you will never have more than driver assist, as somethings either won't be detected or can be incorrectly identified and human intervention is required to analyse the situation. If the driver isn't alert then the system fails and the "driver" pays the consequence.

This was seriously highlighted recently with the death of a Tesla driver, presumably letting the car take full control. With only cameras, the car didn't see a light coloured truck crossing in front of it against a bright sky.

To be clear, autopilot is a great driver assist feature but is a single technology enough when lives are at stake to allow this as the basis for a fully autonomous system?

To use a bad analogy, would you jump out of an aeroplane with only a single parachute with no backup emergency 'shute?

So we come back to the same question, who decides how many systems need to be used and how many of each?

Cost, obviously is a factor but if you buy in bulk then the cost comes down. Tesla model 3 so fr has advance orders in excess of 300,000, so if you have 2 lidars on each that's 600,000 units straight off the bat. Build in the cost for a full production run over the life of the vehicle model and we are talking millions of units.

Given that new products have to cover the development cost in the first few years then they are expensive. However once the development costs have been recovered the manufacturing cost is far lower and economy of scale kicks in and the wholesale price becomes much cheaper.

Why not then have systems in the vehicle from the start. It will add to the base price of the vehicle obviously but think about who will be the early adopters.

These will be the big fleet buyers for taxis services who are lining up to corner the market as soon as the tech is approved for use, and these players have very deep pockets and are prepared to pay a premium to have the safest systems on the road right from the beginning.

This covers the recovery costs and economy of scale starts to kick in from these clients and the rich private buyers and by the time it trickles down to the rest of us plebs, the costs will be far lower. That is if we even need to buy a car at that point but that's another discussion altogether.

Hopefully there will emerge an international body that sets industry standards and we can get the best possible results, we're talking of saving millions of lives a year after all and every single life counts, especially if it's my family.





 

Part 19 - A day in the life of.

I woke at my normal time and went through the normal cleansing ritual (the three SSS's) and turned on the news as I started breakfast.

Average sort of news day, war in the middle east, former superstar dies at 90, politician charged with corruption, nothing out of the ordinary except for the one story at the end that suprised me and I would think, many others.   

In Sydney, there was a guy on his way to work and was involved in a collision when a tyre blew and his car swerved into another. Fortunately there were only minor injuries and the road was cleared by Sydney automated Crash Clear in a few minutes. Traffic control central issued an automated alert and all other vehicles changed lanes and continued with diversions to allow the emergency vehicles through in priority mode.

Most people were only delayed for a minute or two at most, but the unusual point was that this was the first collision that involved human injury in the entire city in over a month.

  

With the passing of the new autonomous vehicle law and its enforcement last year, it meant that manual driving within the metropolitan area was now illegal. Since then the collision rate, and particularly the death and injury rate had dropped to historic lows.

I finished eating and voice called Valet. "Leaving for work 5 minutes"

I cleaned up, picked up my gear and walked out the front as the car pulled in to my drive.

It changed to my favourite colour and spoke as the door opened. "Good morning George, heading for the office as usual"? 

I grunted an affirmative and engaged the in car display to get an early start on the day.

Having achieved several emails, two video calls and a lot of reading I had clocked up 30 minutes from my work quota before I got there.

I left the car at the kerb as it reconfigured itself for the next user.

I crossed the nearly deserted road to get coffee. 

The coffee shop was a retro kind of place with old posters, one of which was a street scene taken from across the road looking back at this store from about 50 years ago. The contrast was striking. There were masses of cars waiting at the long since removed traffic lights and people waiting for them to change so they could cross. To the side was the multi story car park which is now an open area with gardens and fountains where I quite often spend some time at lunch.

As I get my coffee I hear an ambulance approaching, siren blaring to warn the pedestrians, the light poles start to flash automatically in a pleasing calidescope of colour as they receive the alert to warn the deaf people, and the not so deaf immersed in their music. The vehicle passes swiftly, unimpeded and the sound fades into the distance.

I walk back to my office for the rest of the daily grind.

At 3pm I have Valet call a car to take me to home and I get another 30 minutes work done on the way.

I find a parcel waiting at the door that I ordered online this morning and the auto delivery got it here before I did, better than standing in a queue as I used to do.

Tonight I will have a car pick me up and several friends on the way and we can have a nice evening at a restaurant without having to worry about a "skipper" staying sober to drive home or worrying about finding parking in the city centre.

There was a brawl in the street tonight and the police were there within a minute. No traffic patrols, breathalisers and high speed pursuits for these boys in blue. 

They now get to focus more on real policing and the response time shows, as it does for ambulances and emergency rooms with car crashes out of the scene.

We can all feel safer on the street now on multiple levels.

Valet gets me a car and I can catch a few minutes of my favourite streaming show on the way home after checking and responding to a few private emails.

I reflected as I drifted off that night about how much more time I have now, useful time that I can enjoy with far lower stress levels than I used to have driving or on public transport.

At last Technology has caught up with people and become transparent, where things like Valet have become pretty much a silent servant.

Now technology works for us, we don't have to work to make it work, and it works very, very well.

Part 18 - Today is the beginning of the rest of your life

I know I spoke of this in the last blog but it is a significant event and needs to be looked at in more depth.

Last week the first person died in a vehicle that was driving itself.

Lets start by saying that any death for whatever reason is lamentable.

Suprisingly, the fact that a vehicle was being driven autonomously and caused a death has not started a backlash as the pundits had forecast.

Why is that?

The simple answer is that it wasn't an autonomous car in the first place. It was a great car with a lot of driver assist features that are available within the vehicle to be used in test mode with the drivers full attention, ready to take control.

The driver apparently was using it as an autonomous vehicle, having gained confidence in its features over a period of time - which may have generated a lethal overconfidence when a situation occurred that was outside its capabilities and the driver failed to notice.

The official enquiry will bring out the facts so any speculation at this point is really futile.

Many cars on the road currently have similar features with different systems and sensors all looking at the world differently.

One fact that is indisputable is that this technology is not ready to allow it to be used exclusively as an autonomous vehicle and Tesla is quick to point out that fact.

Unfortunately, if a progressive development model is rolled out over time with more and more driver assist features which still rely on the driver to be awake and aware then that creates a whole new problem.

Imagine you're driving on a long trip and the the road is long, straight and extremely boring, a common scenario in a place like Western Australia where I live, where it can be many hundred of miles - between trees, and even further between towns with the only thing to break the monotony is the odd kangaroo or emu.

But what if the kangaroo or emu decides it wants to occupy the same space on the road as you do at the same time? (not the brightest animals in the world, think "shiny thing, lets check it out").
The semi autonomous vehicle says Oh Oh, I don't know how to handle this and throws its virtual hands in the air and screams ITS YOURS!

What happens?

The driver could take a very long time, in high speed travel terms to go from semi comatose to alert, and by then it could be too late for the driver and most certainly for the emu.

So a case can be made for going directly to fully autonomous vehicles but that in itself creates a whole new set of problems.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that fully autonomous vehicles will be on sale and on the road in 2020 and many others will be offering level two or three vehicles which leads to the problem just mentioned.

That is less than 4 years from now and, as per a lot of countries, we are not ready!

So what does that mean for users?

A very good question as there are, as yet, no industry standards, no federal and very limited state regulation in Australia, and very little anywhere else.

So that means if standards are not set for the use of these features are they legal to use?

Within Australia a driver has to be in control at all times under current law, so what are the implications for using a vehicle in autonomous mode? Worse still what will be the consequences if a vehicle is sold as fully autonomous and someone is killed when the law has not been changed.

All of the above means that the vehicles on sale in many places will have to have controls built in to prevent the full use of autonomous features on the road and to put the onus back on to the driver until such times as the law changes, Mercedes are doing this now.

So that begs the question of what needs to be done to get ready for the future today?

First and foremost we need a legal definition of what defines an autonomous vehicle and that needs to be based on standards that can be measured and quantified such as:

1. Standards for the minimum number of sensors required and their location.
2. Standards for the types of sensors required.
3. Standards to define the minimum sensor range of the sensors fitted.
4. Testing scenarios via NATA and/or  ANCAP to determine the efficiency and reliability of the systems.
5. Law changes to allow drivers to be hands off, with the above criteria met.
6. Insurance companies to allow claims against collision when in autonomous mode.

There are undoubtedly many more but these are the first that spring to mind. 

And remember, we have less that 4 years to do it all before the tech hits and starts being used seriously.

On the same theme, Volvo has reaffirmed that it will take "full responsibility for the operation and efficacy of its autopilot technologies" for their autonomous cars when they hit the road.

This will remove the onus from the driver and put it on Volvo provided the vehicle is used in accordance with the manufacturer and the currents law.

Now that's a level of confidence that you really want to see when you're sitting in a ton and a half of metal hurtling down the road with a computer in control and it also gives the emus a fighting chance.

BMW has also set 2021 as the launch date for their fully autonomous vehicle as well with a new partnership with chip maker Intel to supply the processing power and Mobileye technology for the software.

The future is here, nearly, sort of, maybe.

Part 17 - Ethics and automation, rebel without a cause

Another highlight this week in the world of automated vehicles is, yet again, the question of ethics.

Computers don't know what an ethic is, and even if they did it would still be irrelevant.

Think tanks love to get involved in moral dilemmas. What if? .. it doesn't matter what, can a computer handle it in a way acceptable to people?

Really, it is irrelevant for the simple fact that people react differently to computers and much, much slower.
 If you are presented with a moral dilemma when driving, the human will usually hit the brakes as an instinctive reaction and go into brain freeze as they try to sort out what's happening and by the time they formulate a reaction, it's all over one way or another.

A computer will see the danger long before a human would, start to brake, tell other vehicles about the problem and then react to the circumstance. Ethics don't come into it at all.

The outcome, regardless of the action taken will in the vast majority of situations, always be far better from an autonomous vehicle than by a human as the detection and response time is far faster. So yes, automated vehicles in extreme circumstances may still result in death or injury , but the estimated 90% reduction in traffic incidents far outweighs any moral dilemma.

Ethics, nice to talk about but totally irrelevant to the new world of automated vehicles.

Having said that, we come back to the real world and  new dilemma that we will face increasingly as time goes on.

That is the fact that a person has died in a car under computer control.

Was this an autonomous vehicle, no. It is a Tesla which has beta software running on driver assist technology. Unfortunately it appears that people are relying more and more on it as fully autonomous system which it isn't. In this situation all the facts are not yet available as a full enquiry will be conducted to establish what really happened. Was the driver attentive and ready to take back control? What sensors were in use in that particular vehicle and what were the exact circumstances of the collision?
All of this will be discussed ad nausium in days to come but it does highlight a whole raft of issues to be sorted before fully automated vehicles hit the road.

For instance Volvo wants to have fully autonomous vehicles on the road in New South Wales by 2021. (NSW is the most densely populated state in Australia with Sydney as the capital).

Most, if not all states in Australia have a rule that states a licensed driver must be in control of a vehicle with a least one hand on the steering wheel at all times.

Until that law is changed a car can't drive itself without a "human" driver in control.
Change to this law is essential but it's really only the tip of the iceberg.

Firstly what defines an autonomous vehicle?

• What sensors does it need to be considered safe? Does it have radar and Lidar in addition to a camera?
• What is the range of the sensors?
• What tests have they been put through to satisfy the authorities enough to allow them on the road?

These are a few of the simpler questions that need to be answered before laws can be changed to permit these vehicle on the road in fully autonomous mode.
Australia has some of the toughest vehicle standards in the world and this is rigorously enforced and if vehicles don't comply they are not permitted on the road in Australia.

As I have said in earlier blogs, the governments need to start addressing these issues now before the technology use becomes more widespread in defiance of the laws.

If standards are not applied then this unfortunate death may be the first of many resulting from the use of technology not really designed for the way it's being used and a lot of the work done in improving road safety standards will be bypassed for the sake of expediency.

If that happens there may be many more deaths even with the technology as the technology is just what it says on the label, driver assist.

Interesting concept in the brave new world of electric vehicles.

Imagine a world with all of theses batteries on wheels running around. What if you can share the power? Charge during the day with cheap power and sell it back to the grid at night?

An interesting article here that postulates that you could substantially offset a large part of the car cost using this method.

Link this with the concept of power sharing on the road between vehicles and the whole concept changes.

OK, since I started looking at this it has become a fascinating insight into the possible future.

Electric cars can easily become a power source in their own right.  Power charging could come from the road itself, from parking bays or stand alone charging systems that a car can park at, then move from autonomously when charged.

There are limitless possibilities but using it as a storage bank has definite appeal.
Tesla could incorporate their cars into the "Tesla Power Wall".

All very interesting possibilities.

May you live in interesting times.

Part 16 - A fork in the road

A bit of light reading has prompted me to think of the possible "big picture" scenario in the evolution of autonomous vehicles.

It strikes me that there are really a couple of basic ways of doing this.
I hadn't even really considered this until today but reading between the lines there appears to be a fundamental difference in the way that China and the west are approaching things.

The common school of thought is that the manufacturers build cars that basically do all the things drivers do, (hopefully not the bad things  that tend to kill people) and will effectively be a plug in replacement for the driver. Add to that some communications where cars can talk to each other to know about traffic density, road works and other impediments and the car decides which way to go.
The vehicle programs the route and away it goes.

For the sake of argument and my less than perfect interpretation of how I think China could be heading, lets turn that on its head....

China is already installing devices in manually driven vehicles to allow them to communicate between themselves and  infrastructure as a pilot program and to spread across all of China.

Once that's in place, imagine a possible scenario where a state sanctioned vehicle is built. The state has implemented an integrated, centralised transport infrastructure system including a control centre.
The drivers gets into the car and punches in the destination. The car connects to the centralised control centre that knows the position of every vehicle on the road, the location of every road work, every emergency vehicle and its destination and traffic densities at every intersection.

Based on this information it can calculate the optimal route and send it back to the vehicle which then takes off in autonomous mode. Any changes to traffic conditions can generate a new route, long before the vehicle reaches a congestion point.

Now for the good and the bad.

The good.
With this in place before the vehicles actually hit the road means that the real life integration of manually driven vehicles and autonomous vehicles can be made much simpler. Think adaptive traffic lights from a centralised system to even out traffic flow, diversion from collision scenes, optimisation of routes for emergency vehicles including advance avoidance by the autonomous vehicles and possible in car warning to manual cars as part of the infrastructure build. By optimising the entire system as an entity, rather than individual units, the system can be coordinated as a whole making it extremely efficient.

Now for the downside.
Big brother knows exactly where you are, always. It can also hijack you if it wants to. If you wanted to be really paranoid and go the full conspiracy route, it could also direct you to a drive off a cliff and no one would be any the wiser. Unfortunately history has proven that governments are capable of these kind of acts in both the East and the West.

Anyone who is driving manually won't be able to get away with anything. Run a red light, you're done, because the system knows where your car is and what the light status is. This could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on how far they enforce the rules. It could also supply a lever as automation becomes more common to shift drivers away from manual control.

 The middle ground. 
If a system like this was to be contemplated, at least in the west, it would have to be heavily wrapped in safeguards to make it work without being exploited, hacked or otherwise turned into a weapon of mass destruction.

I can't really see the west evolving anytime soon to a system like this, but in China, given the social and political structure, anything is possible.


New news

At opposite ends of the spectrum both Mini and Rolls Royce are both preparing for the future with not only autonomous but electric cars.

Rolls Royce has built what I think is the best concept car ever, surpassing even the  Australian FJ holden concept.

This has to be the best looking car ever, kind of like Art Deco mating with Futurama.
It will probably never see the light of day as a production vehicle but does show the way the thinking is going - and I really really like it...

Mini, on the other hand is looking at merging two worlds.
Where Rolls Royce is, and always will be, looking at private ownership. Mini, on the other hand, is looking at an alternate world where private ownership is optional.
But customising a shared vehicle to reflect the current drivers personality is a really radical and quite inovative concept. the car colour can be changed by the driver.

Who knows, you may even be able to have an account and the car reconfigures itself on the way to you and you see it as "your car" when it arrives.

More news

New technologies have combined and created a new electric autonomous shuttle bus using 3D printing and it's called Ollie.

Built through crowd sourcing it exemplifies many technologies and processes not even dreamed of ten years ago.

Ollie will be giving autonomous rides at the companies introductory event on the new National Harbour Campus today.16/6/2016.

Part 15 - A changing world

In the past for long periods of time life was fairly simple, you were born, lived in a local community, did the same thing most of your life, had a family and died, generally quite young.

Technology came along and changed all that. Today most people, at least in cities, live a much longer life and adapt with constant change to their work and private life as technological change accelerates .

This blog is an example of that. Twenty years ago who had heard of a blog? most people hadn't even heard of the Internet and streaming services were a pipe dream.

This blog is about autonomous vehicles and so far I have covered most of the basics about the subject so it becomes more difficult to write a decent length piece on a particular subject that can hold peoples interest.

I am now going to change the format of this blog so it will become more of a news update with the odd longer piece when I find something of interest that I consider worth expanding on.

So lets kick it off...  Driverless cars are not the full story of automated vehicles.

In one of my first blogs I had a story about the  EHANG 184 personal single seat autonomous quad copter.

 At the time this was seen as a concept design that probably wouldn't go anywhere, but as I said earlier things today change quickly.

May 26th 2016 saw the signing of an historic agreement between the state of Nevada and the Chinese EHANG corporation. This agreement will provide the foundation for collaboration between the Nevada Institute for Autonomous Systems (NIAS) and EHANG Inc in the areas of flight testing, training and development of autonomous aerial devices at Nevadas FAA test site.
The full story is here.

The blade runner future of flying cars may be replace by electric quad copters but the video below is eerily reminiscent of coming into Bangcock by bus with the huge electronic billboards on many of the buildings. I can just visualise it from a quad copter.

On a similar note, autonomous trucks are becoming more and more in the news recently with automated road trains being tested in real world conditions.

In April 6 conveys of trucks from different European countries converged at Rotterdam in Holland after driving in "platooning"mode from as far as Sweden and Southern Germany.

The Platooning method means that the lead truck, with a driver controls all the following trucks. this gives a consistent highway speed and better fuel utilisation. In this test all the trucks were semi autonomous and had drivers on board, but this gives a pretty good idea of what's to come.

Analysts are now saying that 21 Million self driving cars will be on the road by 2035. Many thousands will be on the road in the US by 2020 and that US will lead in this market.

These numbers have been upgraded seriously from the last report as the whole autonomous vehicle scenario is accelerating. As I said in a previous blog, the new space race is well and truly on and I don't think the news for the US in this is as rosy as the article indicates.

I think these estimates are still extremely conservative as China is pushing hard to get the lead in this market. Singapore is wanting thousands of automated taxis on the road in the next few years....

I personally don't think the US has a chance of beating Asia in a race like this, given their legal system and their peoples inert resistance and fear of anything promoted by the government.

If China wants to do it sooner, they will because they can, the US will have to convince their people to try it, the Chinese can just say you will do it.... end of story

In concluding for today I just want to put it out there that robots should look obviously like robots. It creeps me out when they look like people, have a look at these as an example and see if you agree with me.

Cheers

Part 14 - The cusp of change

Something a little different this time, mainly because the thought occurred to me that autonomous vehicles are just part of a whole raft of technology that is affecting the way we live.
So then I started to think about the long term affects that technological change will have on society.

I am no psychiatrist, sociologist or anyone else remotely qualified to comment on the actual effects but I over the years I have observed a trend.

People appear to becoming more socially isolated as technology gains ground in our everyday life.

Back in my younger days when dinosaurs ruled the earth the family would sit around the radio, and later the TV and watch or listen as a family.

For a real treat, occasionally you got to go to the movies and sit with a crowd to watch it together.

With the advent of affordable home computing, every kid has a mission control in their bedroom with a computer, tablet, mobile phone all working together over the internet.

Instead of sitting as a family, each member watches what they want on TV or streaming services or play games online, or frequently, both at the same time.

Even in the early days of computer games, my kids used to have LAN sessions where all their mates would come around, set up a local network and hook all their machines together, order pizza and away they go. Today it's all in the cloud so there is no direct personal interaction.

Many people go to work on public transport. With autonomous vehicles happening, the advent of a vehicle as a service is being mooted and may even become the new public transport of the future with trains and buses becoming obsolete. There you have people sitting, working or playing within the vehicle with no direct personal interaction. Is personal isolation the way of the future and social interaction done through virtual reality?

Another observation. You used to sit at your office desk and talk about things. Now it's all email or chat software. You can work all day and say nothing aloud to another person but have many virtual conversations.

 Ok, so what has technology ever done for me?

Today its everywhere. Tonight I watched Britain's got talent the day after it's shown in the UK. One of the acts used computers to drive drones as part of the act and I watched it on the other side of the world several hours after it aired live.

People are printing prosthetic limbs on home computers for a fraction of the cost of commercial units.

One of my colleagues told me in the stairwell as I was leaving work today about a 3d printed electric bike. called light rider. Apologies to KIT (Knight Rider for those of you too young to know) for the pun. Even though it looks like something out of farscape, it is impressive as possibly the worlds first 3D printed motor cycle.

Computer controlled routers abound, I have one in my shed complete with computer keyboard, mouse and LCD screen and CAD CAM software.

What home doesn't have an LCD screen with a set top box and streaming services?

Foxconn, which is a major supplier of devices for Apple and other major suppliers has replaced 60,000 jobs with robots.  A good choice for a manufacturer to reduce costs and increase productivity, but what is the long term cost to society?

Workers are also consumers. If workers are replaced by machines on a large scale then who is left to buy the products produced?

Some argue that they don't lose their jobs but just increase productivity, the world economic forum has an interesting paper here on the possible effects of automation

So when you are sitting in your autonomous car what will you be doing?

Going too or from work could be used to catch up on work, reading, studying etc but on weekends it could be another story.

With cars currently being only semi-autonomous, engaging in sex in a moving car brings more than the normal amount of risk to the act.

Latest news on the autonomous front: insurance companies are predicting a drop in the cost of insurance once this tech hits the road in serious numbers, with Bloomberg predicting insurance costs could drop 60% in 15 years, giving fears to the survival of the industry.

To compound their woes, vehicle manufacturers, confident in their products ability to avoid collision may choose to wear their own insurance costs, putting yet more pressure on the insurance industry.

Add to that the probability of less cars on the road due to a car as a service scenario and things start to look very bleak.

On that note, a new start up called Zoot, out of Silicon Valley, is attempting to raise $US252 Million to start an autonomous Uber type service.  It also has a license to operate autonomous vehicles on the road in California. Uber, Lyft and others are heading down the same path and have inked deals with major vehicle manufacturers to provide these services.

Tesla, a name fast becoming synonymous with driver less technology, may be far closer to a fully automated vehicle than many people think, possibly next year if this article from MIT Technology Review has the facts right.

Tesla is fast becoming a leader as it is logging truly massive amounts of data as all their vehicles constantly send data back to Tesla. What that means in the real world, is that Tesla is getting the real world data equivalent of Googles total testing data, and this is hard to believe, every 10 hours.....

They have a massive, world wide test bed, on the road everyday,sending reams of data back to improve their systems based on real world data.

So the question is can we become socially isolated when we are connected like never before?

Time will tell.