The turn of a new year.
With the advent of a new year comes new things, promises and challenges.
This year, more than ever I am glad I live in Australia.
I think the challenges we face pale in comparison to many other countries and for that I am grateful.
Ford made a major announcement that its Autonomous Vehicle will be released for on road use for Uber type services in 2021 (less than 4 years from the time of writing) and available in showrooms for public purchase by 2025.
The major difference here is that it won't have steering wheel or pedals for the taxi fleet. It is undecided at this point whether the private owner model will or won't have them.
They are looking to have 30 vehicles (with safety drivers) on the road shortly and 90 by the end of this year.
This of course is very dependent on how the new US President reacts to computers taking over the current jobs of drivers in the Taxi/Uber industry.
This creates a major conundrum and a huge headache for someone who wants to keep jobs.
The question is, do you move to Automated Vehicles and keep the tech industry at the leading edge or keep the manual jobs and let China and others take the lead in technology which will probably cost the US economy far more in the longer term?
One of the challenges I alluded to earlier and the tip of the iceberg when it comes to automation.
Chrysler has announced a Concept AV called the Portal.
This doesn't physically exist but has a great CGI animation.
According to the blurb it is designed "by millennials for millennials". The new startup Faraday Future’s FF 91 is supposedly in production soon and has several test vehicles.
Toyota has a concept called the, oddly enough, Concept - i.
Apart from the concepts, it appears the least reported but most significant things top affect AV's is the underlying technology.
Most of the developers were in the car parks showing off their new tech but this stuff doesn't have the glamour and therefore doesn't rate as highly in the news reports but is the structure that will make or break acceptance of the technology.
Can't wait for the day when a robot at CES steals an autonomous car, hacks it and does burnouts in the carpark.
On another note, I have mentioned that Navya along with the RAC and the State Government here in Perth Western Australia is trialing an autonomous bus which they refer to as the Intellibus and is taking passengers around South Perth.
I am fortunate enough to have a seat on a test run next week and will record this and will do a blog on the experience.
Something to look forward to for me at least, you, maybe not so much.
Last week I went to Crown Casino in Perth for lunch, not because I am a gambler, but because they have cheap lunch deals.
However we dipped out as that was only Monday to Thursday and we chose to go on Friday so I was right on form as usual, but that's another story.
While I was waiting for my colleagues to pay for lunch ( I had already paid for mine in case you were wondering) I just stood there and looked around at this huge gaming area with flashing lights, bells and music.
One thing struck me immediately, apart from the lack of smiles on peoples faces, and that was the lack of staff.
Not that I'm saying that there aren't enough staff, just that everything that can be, is automated.
All the pokies are computerised, the money is handled by the machine, or added to a card by a machine with no human intervention. Many of the people in front of the machines look like machines as well with blank stares and push the button, wait, stare, push the button. Repeat.
There is even an automated roulette type wheel and the players have linked screens where they place their bets. The machine voice says no more bets then the wheel begins to spin all on its own, stops and pays out to the screen of anyone lucky enough to win.
Driving back from there I notice a new fixed speed camera on the side of the road. No longer police standing there with a radar but fixed cameras at intersections at regular intervals. The first thing you know these days when you've done something wrong is when you get the bill in the mail.
I used to be a great supporter of speed camera, but now that there are so many of them it's far easy to be penalised when you do make a legitimate mistake. We are human and if you try really hard to do the right thing you still make the odd mistake, and if there is camera there when you do, it's another fine. I try not to make mistakes, but I am Human, no matter how much my wife begs to differ.
Roll on automated vehicles.
In the same vein this whole concept is to be extended, where the speed camera comes to you with an automated police motorcycle cruising the streets looking for offenders and issuing on the spot fines (literally) via apps or email.
At what point do we reach the limits of human concentration? We all know that there are very bad drivers out there that shouldn't be allowed on the road but at what point does an average person start to lose their license because they physically and mentally can't keep up the concentration 100% of the time. I know we should but I also know that we can't.
This could actually become a selling point when autonomous vehicles hit big time, and can also be used by government as a migration tool, but in the interim it is going to cause pain.
Add to that the new Crusin' parking inspectors that just drive by and the computer records the number plates of all vehicles it passes and ties it to a GPS system. This is recorded and on the next pass if the car is till there and has exceeded its limit an automated fine is produced.
So, whats the point of, well, pointing out all of the automation?
Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of it is great, but we do have the risk of people becoming more insular, with social interaction being reduced to the point that you can avoid human contact virtually altogether.
Virtual reality will make that even more of an issue.
On another note, Uber has started running autonomous cars in San Francisco.
Not everyone is happy.
Uber has not applied for a license and it looks like this may come to trading blows in court.
It's been a while since I made a blog entry, not because I didn't want to, but because there hasn't been a lot of news.
Most manufacturers have made their announcements, published their road maps and now have gone quiet while getting on with the job of making it work.
The major hurdle these days seems to be government dragging heir feet and not addressing the issues that will have a dramatic effect on society.
I wrote an open letter to that effect and have held off publishing it as I have sent requests to both state and Federal (Australian) governments requesting information of what they are intending to do.
After a month I have had no response.
However, as is the way of life when you take a stand, something comes long to make you look faintly ridiculous, or prophetic, depending on your outlook. I'll go with prophetic.
The (Australian) National Transport Commission has been in place since 2003 and has had a remit to look at transport across the country. But as time goes on, things change.
Recently their focus has been updated. and this is a quote from their website.
Automated vehicles offer the possibility of fundamentally changing transport and society by improving road safety, freight productivity and by reducing road congestion. However, current regulations do not adequately support automated road vehicles. In November 2016, Australian transports ministers agreed to a phased reform program so that conditionally automated vehicles can operate safely and legally on our roads before 2020, and highly and fully automated vehicles from 2020. To provide certainty on the use of existing technology, transport ministers reaffirmed the existing policy position that the human driver remains in full legal control of a vehicle that is partially or conditionally automated, unless or until a new position is developed and agreed. These recommendations and policy positions are set out in the NTC policy paper – Regulatory reforms for automated road vehicles.
The policy paper starts off with a realistic statement that gives me hope that this is a step in the right direction.
However, current regulations do not adequately support automated
road vehicles and there is uncertainty about how and when current polices and regulations
will be adapted. There is also a risk that, without a national and coordinated response to
automated vehicle reform, Australia’s complex regulatory framework will result in inconsistent
regulation of automated vehicles across states and territories.
In this policy paper, the National Transport Commission (NTC) recommends that the
Commonwealth and state and territory governments support on-road trials, remove
unnecessary legal barriers, and provide for the safe operation of automated vehicles.
So it seems, I am pleased to say, that I have been pre-empted in trying to get governments involved.
As this technology will be appearing on the road within the next few years it needs to be addressed urgently and this is a good start with a National focus.
Apple has finally announced their intention of development in the field of autonomous vehicles with a letter to the (US) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) .
Although apple does refer to the sharing of crash data between manufacturers, that does seem to be at odds with their usual closed eco-system. Hopefully they will help with standardisation not proprietary systems.
In the US it's anyones guess what will happen once Trump gets into the White House.
His opposition to automation stealing jobs doesn't bode well for automated vehicles as they will replace many driving jobs.
If that's the case then the US may well slip behind the rest of the world in leading edge technologies, ironically leaving China to grab the lead.
There has been a huge amount of capital spent in developing technology to replace people and I don't think that's going to change back anytime soon. Amazons automated warehouse being a case in point.
No matter what your told, it's not just the US. Watch this video about automation in China.
This has to be the ultimate bridge builder to date. Note how fast it happens (even though the video has been sped up) and how few people are involved.
The clock doesn't get turned back just because you want to...
The world of autonomous cars seems to be chugging along (pardon the pun) quite nicely with no great revelations or changes occurring, which makes the effort of writing a blog on the subject so much more difficult.
This would explain why there hasn't been many additions to mine lately.
So for something different I am going to look at the world of automation in a broader aspect.
Automated boats and ships are a coming thing for slightly different reasons than car automation.
Primarily its a cost thing.
To start with, have a look at this pioneer trying to do something that hasn't been done before, successfully sailing a totally autonomous boat from California to Hawaii.
A great pioneering event, not withstanding the fact that it's only a couple of feet long and weighs 60 pounds. (2 metres long and 27 kilos to all of us outside Trump world).
The full story is here. The fact is that he built this with both consumer and professional parts when required and it actually worked.
On arrival in Hawaii, it was cleaned up, reprogrammed and is now on its way to New Zealand.
I for one will be very pleased if it makes it down to our part of the world and will be following its progress with great interest. If you are interested as well you can follow its progress here.
Amsterdam has launched a new project to develop "Roboats", fully autonomous boats that can be used for multiple purpose in a city with many canals.
In a project with a lot of hefty technology organisations behind it such as The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), The Amsterdam Institute of for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS Institute), Delft University of Technology (TUD), and Wageningen University and Research (WUR), it has very good prospects.
The boats, or more accurately, barges, can be used for a myriad of purposes ranging from personal use for tours up to coupling them together as emergency bridges or temporary performance stages.
International shipping.
Due to its very nature and the development of containerisation the whole process really lends itself to automation. Containerisation has been automated for some time now and has very little physical human input.
the following video shows just how far automation has come with the masses of automated vehicles moving containers around without a person in sight.
Because this is a secure industrial site it isn't open to the public so it has developed at a huge rate with little public knowledge. The sophistication of these systems is absolutely staggering and the sort of thing you would expect in a science fiction movie.
The ships that carry the containers now also have a high level of automation to increase efficiency and reduce crew costs. Many of the crew they do have are no longer specialists but more all rounders as many of the technical functions are fully automated.
This reduction in crew cost can produce huge savings, therefore offsetting the automation cost in the first place and providing a return on the investment in a shorter time frame.
Fully automated ships are on the drawing board and about to start manufacture.
January 2017 sees the first build begin for a fully automated container ship.
Where does shipping go from here?
Roll Royce has a vision and I must admit, if you have looked at the automation that already exists and given the communications technology available now, this vision could be far closer than you think.
So, to summarise, the subject of automated vehicles has a far wider implication than just cars and trucks.
Shipping automation is so far advanced but most people aren't aware of the level of technology in use and the next few years will see even more dramatic change.
A short one this time due to the fact that there isn't a lot happening at the moment.
Actually, there is a lot happening but it's diverse. We are at a point where different companies are still investigating different things. When the rubber actually hits the road we will see an acceleration when companies see what others are doing, what is being accepted and then incorporate other peoples technologies into their own.
That's the point where standardisation occurs.
Once everyone's on the same page, economy of scale kicks in big time and uptake accelerates as costs drop. At least that's my theory...
Given the bad press Tesla has received with people using driver assist technology as fully autonomous, it was interesting to see Elon Musk announcing that all Teslas now being produced have fully autonomous hardware installed.
The exact quote
"We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. Eight surround cameras provide 360 degree visibility around the car at up to 250 meters of range. Twelve updated ultrasonic sensors complement this vision, allowing for detection of both hard and soft objects at nearly twice the distance of the prior system. A forward-facing radar with enhanced processing provides additional data about the world on a redundant wavelength, capable of seeing through heavy rain, fog, dust and even the car ahead."
This is obviously a great step forward and a recognition that you can't rely on a single technology but need overlapping sensors to cater for all contingencies.
This obviously adds to the cost but we are talking about lives here so price is (or should be) a secondary consideration.
On the other hand will this increase peoples expectations and rely on the tech even more before it's ready?
Time will tell.
Yesterday saw a truck in Colorado make a delivery of beer using an autonomous system.
Admittedly it was only on the highway stretches, not in urban traffic and had special permission to do so.
Having said that, one of my favourite expressions is that once the technology is out there and can be used, it will be.
You can't turn the clock back, no matter how much Islamic extremists or some current high profile politicians want to, once it's out there, it's out there so get used to it becoming more common.
On the same theme, McKinsey and company have released a report that suggests that a third of long haul trucks will be not have a need for a full time driver by 2025 due to the increased use of technology.
Autonomous personal aircraft are in the news again with the Airbus group developing a new single seat, battery powered 4 rotor personal aircraft about the size of a car. Air taxi anyone?
Of course Ehang industries has prototypes undergoing testing already but the more the merrier as any competition generates development and growth.
I have just been on a bit of a jaunt through Europe and with jet lag and all I am now back in the saddle.
Not a lot of Autonomous vehicle news emerging from my travels but I did notice a lot of electric car charging stations in Paris and they were well frequented.
One other thing I noticed as well is the number of for hire bicycle racks where you flash a card and take of on a bike and leave it at another bike site somewhere else.
Paris has extended both these concepts where you find and autoLib station, flash your card, disconnect the charging cable and drive away in an electric car!
If you live in a busy city with limited parking and narrow roads why would you want to own a car when you can hire one as easily as that.
That brings me to this weeks subject.... Where I see autonomous cars going in the future.
This whole concept is one I have thought about and not referencing any particular school of thought but looking at it from a purely logical perspective I will lay out where I think it should go. This may not be practical for reasons of cost, politics and human fear but should give you something to think about... Hopefully.
I did something similar to this when talking about where China could be heading but will try and lay it out in a more logical manner.
Here goes....
From an efficiency point of view, the concept of a car being entirely standalone in getting from A to B is possible but ignores a lot of real time conditions. For example, road works, emergency vehicles and heavy traffic in specific areas means that the route selected is not optimal.
I see the first and most efficient feature needed in autonomous vehicles is to have Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) and Infrastructure to Vehicle (Referred to V2I) communication and think this is required as a minimum.
Why you ask?.... A very good question.
You hop in your (or hired) autonomous vehicle (AV) and program in your destination to the built in GPS and away you go.
The vehicle will have GPS as this is a key to autonomous driving, otherwise you would have to guide the vehicle yourself which rather defeats the purpose, so that's a given.
Now if you have GPS it's a simple matter to have Main Roads (or whatever road maintenance organisation you have in your part of the world) to have a box associated with any road work activity that can update GPS systems with the details of what's happening in that location. Your AV can then determine if it needs to change course or continue. This can happen quickly in real time.
(Collectively V2V and V2I is referred to as V2X.)
Extend that to Police and other emergency vehicles, tow trucks, water pipe repair crews, power line maintenance with systems that can be quickly activated in the event of any activity that could have an effect on traffic and you immediately eliminate many traffic bottlenecks.
With V2V instant communications it simplifies things when your vehicle decides to brake hard because it has detected a child chasing a ball on to the road. You don't have to worry about being rear ended as the vehicle behind can always know what you are doing. It also won't be reading a text message from the wife and will be able to react instantly.
When a vehicle enters another road and wants to merge, V2V will alter the traffic flow to the optimal to allow seamless integration, without blasting horns and rude finger gestures as we have now.
Imagine a mechanical failure on a freeway where the AV still has velocity but has lost power, with V2V it can communicate with the other vehicles and cut across traffic safely, leaving the roadway clear for fast moving traffic.
One of the problems recently highlighted in Pittsburgh is that a double parked vehicle or delivery vehicle can hold up an AV as it expects the vehicle to move and waits for it. With V2V the stationary vehicle it can tell any vehicle nearby that is going to remain stationary and to go around.
Emergency vehicle will be the big winners here as they can transmit that they are coming through and Moses would be envious of the parting of the waves of traffic as the vehicle approaches.
Random thought... once full automation is achieved in cities, lane makings and street direction become redundant and can be changed in real time as traffic conditions change, for example, a street can be one way for a while and reverse that if the traffic flow requires more access in the other direction and it can be done on the fly by changing specific lane directions and redirecting the AV's to other lanes seamlessly.
Any way I digress.
One of the other features I spoke of in the earlier blog regarding China is that there could be a centralised computer system that controls all traffic flow.
Now that I think about it, it's not really necessary in the West but could be done in more totalitarian countries as a monitoring system for regulation of road use as well as for traffic co-ordination.
The use of GPS systems and V2X give a much better flow to the traffic system as a whole and should eliminate many of the problems we have currently.
So, from that point how do I see it developing?
Another very good question that I'm glad you asked....
Currently we have a number of automated vehicles appearing on the road now.
Here in Perth The RAC with the State Government has started a limited bus test in South Perth.
The important aspect of that is that it is on a public road. It does have a standby operator in the event of issues which you would expect (and hope) to see on early testing.
Singapore has limited automated Taxis on the road in a business park, also with an operator as required and Pittsburgh has started an Uber service, again with an operator.
So, we have testing in real world conditions on the road now all over the world.
Many manufacturers are wanting their Fully AV's on the road by 2021 and California is allowing (approved) fully automated vehicles in limited locations without a driver in new legislation.
Now that these vehicles are on the road, the scope of this testing will increase dramatically. It won't be long before fully automated vehicles will be on sale or available as taxis for widespread use.
Once that happens the issues with integrating them into existing traffic flows will be the new problem.
How will that work?
One school of thought is that there should be warning signs on AV's to let people know that they may not react the way they would expect.
Personally I think that would be a bad move as it would make them targets and people would cut them off deliberately knowing they will brake and take avoiding action. This would be counter productive and could increase collisions.
As the numbers of AV's on the road increase the shift to fitting all vehicles with V2V and V2I technology will become desirable and could even be mandated for safety reasons.
Thought should be given to standardising these systems and implementing it in all new cars in the next couple of years to reduce this as an issue further down the track.
GPS systems will also need to be standardised so all of the competing networks have access to the public infrastructure data.
Once these automated vehicles start to appear on the mainstream roads, driver education becomes the key to knowing what these vehicles will do in a given situation. Given the level of sophistication of the technology now available and the rapid development of even more sophisticated software, the main issue will not be with the AV's but with the current vehicle drivers.
Many people won't like it and, as with any new tech, people resist change.
But there is one inescapable fact, the technology is here to stay.
As in the early days of automobiles there will be opposition and some legislation to stop it but it will fail.
When was the last time you saw someone walking in front of a car waving a red flag?
The time has come, the walrus said to speak of many things, of shoes and ships and sealing wax, of cabbages and kings.
But now the time has come for stars to shine, new days of wonder from afar,
Singapore has today, launched the first fully autonomous car.
A taxi, on the road, no driver, all alone, brave new world but a world of one,
The first of many, of things to come,
A start, a bright light, but at last......... the first one.
(Apologies to Lewis Carroll)
Time for celebration. I had no idea of what to put in a blog this week until I saw this article that Singapore is launching the first fully autonomous taxi service today.
It consist initially of six vehicles that can be called via a mobile phone app and is free service for selected users.
Admittedly it is only within a 2.5 square mile area within the One North business park but it is a start. They plan to have 12 on the road by the end of the year and is a result of Singapores' autonomous vehicle initiative.
Singapores' government has been wanting to reduce the number of vehicles for quite some time and sees this as the ideal way to do it.
They are hoping to reduce the number of vehicles on the road significantly, and where an entire country is smaller than many cities, it is a very desirable aim.
There will be an engineer sitting in the drivers seat for some time as this is a testing phase, not a final release version and you do need to keep safety in the forefront.
The first autonomous taxi on the road, the beginning of a whole new world...
Due to personal commitments I may not be able to write a new blog for 3-4 weeks unless I get really lucky, but given past experience that's unlikely.
